2016年-世界发展银行全球_Sources_of_Productivity_Growth_in_Uganda___The_Role_of_Interindustry_and_Intra-industry_Misallocation_in_the_2000s_49页_2mb

Summary of "Sources of Productivity Growth in Uganda: The Role of Interindustry and Intra-industry Misallocation in the 2000s"

Core Content

This paper investigates the sources of productivity growth in Uganda's economy during the 2000s, focusing on the role of interindustry and intra-industry misallocation of labor and capital. It uses data from two waves of the Uganda Business Indicators (UBI) survey conducted in 2002 and 2009 to analyze how productivity growth was achieved across different sectors and industries.

Main Findings

• Aggregate Productivity Growth: Economy-wide labor productivity grew at an average annual rate of 13%, while total factor productivity (TFP) grew at 3%.
• Sources of Growth:
  • A significant portion of the growth in labor productivity (about one-fifth) was due to allocative efficiency gains from the reallocation of labor and capital across industries and sectors.
  • The majority of the observed labor productivity growth (about 85%) was due to within-industry productivity improvements.
  • TFP growth was also influenced by both within-industry and inter-industry reallocation, but the within-industry component was more consistently positive across industries.
  • Inter-industry reallocation reduced TFP growth by offsetting within-industry productivity gains rather than reinforcing them.
• Sectoral Patterns:
  • Tradable Sector: Labor productivity in the tradable sector grew at an average annual rate of 19%, which is higher than the overall economy-wide growth rate.
  • Non-tradable Sector: Aggregate labor productivity in the non-tradable sector declined by 1.7% annually.
  • Comparative Advantage Industries: These industries saw higher labor productivity growth (25% annually) compared to the rest of the tradable sector.
  • Comparative Disadvantage Industries: These industries contributed more to the overall labor productivity growth, despite lower productivity levels.

Key Points on Productivity Decomposition

• The paper applies the dynamic Olley-Pakes decomposition to analyze productivity growth at different levels of aggregation.
• The decomposition separates productivity growth into within-firm and inter-firm components, as well as within-sector and inter-sector reallocation.
• Within-industry productivity growth was driven primarily by intra-industry reallocation of market shares (and hence labor and capital), which accounted for 55% to 90% of the observed within-industry productivity gains.
• Establishment-level technical efficiency gains contributed to the remaining portion of productivity growth.

Methodology and Data

• Data Sources: The analysis is based on the 2002 and 2009 waves of the UBI survey, which sampled over 4,700 establishments across 326 four-digit ISIC industries.
• Sampling Frame: Both waves were based on the Uganda Business Registry (UBR), which served as a census of all business establishments in the country.
• Industry Classification:
  • Tradable Industries: Included manufacturing, commercial agriculture, and services.
  • Non-tradable Industries: Included construction, utilities, transport and communication, domestic trade, and public services.
  • Comparative Advantage Industries: Identified based on revealed comparative advantage indices and cost data.
  • Upstream vs. Downstream Industries: Upstream industries (e.g., construction, real estate) provided inputs to the economy, while downstream industries (e.g., retail, public services) met domestic demand.

Policy Implications

• The study highlights the importance of allocative efficiency in driving productivity growth, particularly through the reallocation of labor and capital.
• It emphasizes that policy interventions that affect market prices and incentives for innovation can have a significant impact on productivity.
• The paper stops short of identifying specific policies that caused misallocation or the exact remedies needed, which is the focus of a separate study.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while technical progress and within-firm efficiency contributed to productivity growth, reallocation of resources across and within industries played a crucial role, especially in the tradable sector. It also notes that non-tradable sectors experienced productivity losses due to misallocation, which suggests that policy reforms targeting resource allocation could have a significant impact on improving productivity in Uganda.