2000年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh___Climate_Change_and_Sustainable_Development_166页_12mb

Summary of Bangladesh Climate Change and Sustainable Development Report No. 21104-BD

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank's South Asia Rural Development (SASRD) Unit, examines the potential impacts of climate change on Bangladesh and explores adaptation strategies to mitigate these effects. It highlights the country's vulnerability due to its geographical, economic, and social characteristics and provides an overview of climate change scenarios up to the year 2050.

Key Information

Country Overview

• Location: South Asia, specifically Bangladesh.
• Population: 127.6 million in 1999, with projections reaching 190 million by 2020 and 218 million by 2050.
• Economy: One of the world's poorest and least developed nations.
• GNP per capita (1999): $370, significantly lower than South Asia's $581.
• Agriculture: Contributes 25.3% to GDP and is highly vulnerable to climate change.
• Education: Literacy rate is 53%, which limits the country's ability to adapt to climate change.
• Health: Life expectancy at birth is 61 years, infant mortality rate is 57 per 1,000 live births, and 68% of children under five are malnourished.

Climate Change Scenarios (up to 2050)

• Temperature Increase:
  • By 2030: +0.7°C in monsoon; +1.3°C in winter.
  • By 2050: +1.1°C in monsoon; +1.8°C in winter.
• Sea Level Rise:
  • By 2030: 30 cm.
  • By 2050: 50 cm.
• Precipitation Fluctuation:
  • By 2030: -3% in winter; +11% in monsoon.
  • By 2050: -37% in winter; +28% in monsoon.

Climate Sensitivity

• Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its low-lying topography, exposure to cyclones and tidal surges, seasonal flooding, and widespread poverty.
• The country is particularly at risk from increased sea level rise, temperature increases, and precipitation fluctuations.

Main Points and Viewpoints

Vulnerability Factors

• Geography: Deltaic plain with most elevations less than 10 meters above sea level.
• Climate: Subject to severe natural disasters including floods, cyclones, droughts, and storm surges.
• Population: High population density and projected growth increase vulnerability.
• Economy: Poor economic development and low per capita income.
• Health: High infant mortality and child malnutrition rates.
• Education: Low literacy rates limit adaptation capacity.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

• Coastal Zone: Increased risk of inundation, salinization, and loss of coastal resources.
• Fresh Water Resources: Changes in water balance, increased runoff, and potential for more frequent and severe floods.
• Agriculture: Decline in rice and wheat production due to increased temperatures and moisture stress.
• Human Health: Increased risk of waterborne and vector-borne diseases.
• Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Threats to species and habitats, particularly in the Sundarbans.

Adaptation Strategies

• Coastal Resources: Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), early warning systems, and relocation of vulnerable populations.
• Fresh Water Resources: Improved water management, infrastructure development, and planning for increased water availability.
• Agriculture: Introduction of high-yield varieties (HYV), improved irrigation, and crop diversification.
• Human Health: Strengthening health delivery systems, improving sanitation, and increasing access to safe water.
• Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Conservation efforts, habitat protection, and sustainable land use practices.

Key Adaptation Possibilities and Limitations

• Coordination: The need for better coordination among government agencies and NGOs to implement climate change activities.
• Integrated Planning: Cross-sectoral planning is essential to address the complex nature of climate change impacts.
• Research and Analysis: Continuous research is necessary to understand climate change patterns and their effects.
• Knowledge Base Development: Building a comprehensive climate change knowledge base for informed decision-making.
• Guidelines and Assessments: Developing guidelines for planning and design, and conducting Climate Change Impact Assessments (CCIA).
• Awareness Building: Increasing public awareness about climate change and its impacts.
• International Cooperation: Engaging in international efforts to address the root causes of climate change and its impacts.

Key Stakeholders and Collaborations

• Task Leader: Sarwat Chowdhury.
• Sector Director: Ridwan Ali.
• Country Director: Frederick T. Temple.
• Vice President: Mieko Nishimizu.
• Collaborators: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP), and the International Global Change Institute.

Summary of Key Economic Indicators

• GNP (1999): $47 billion.
• GDP (1999): $45.7 billion.
• Gross Domestic Savings/GDP (1999): 16.7%.
• Gross National Savings/GDP (1999): 20.9%.
• GDP Growth (1993-99): Average of 4.8%.
• Population Growth (1993-99): Average of 2.2%.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for proactive adaptation measures to address the increasing vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change. It outlines the key impacts on various sectors and provides a roadmap for sustainable development in the face of these challenges.