2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Mauritania_Second_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_107页_1mb

IMF Country Report No. 18/365: Islamic Republic of Mauritania

Core Content

This document outlines the Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement with the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, conducted by the IMF Executive Board on December 6, 2018. The review confirms satisfactory program implementation, macroeconomic stability, and stabilization of external debt, while highlighting ongoing reforms to modernize economic institutions and the policy framework.

The ECF arrangement has a total access of SDR 115.92 million (about US$160.38 million), with SDR 16.56 million (about US$22.91 million) approved for drawdown during the review, bringing total purchases to SDR 49.68 million (about US$68.74 million). The program includes a request for modification of two performance criteria (PCs) related to official reserves, justified by the less favorable global environment, and an exception to debt limits for financing the offshore gas project.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Outlook and Risks

• The economy is recovering with a positive outlook, driven by growth in non-extractive sectors.
• Despite this, risks remain high, including global economic uncertainties, lower commodity prices, higher oil import costs, and regional security concerns.
• The Grande-Tortue/Ahmeyim (GTA) gas project is expected to generate significant revenues from 2022, although initial development costs are substantial.
• Downside risks are elevated due to potential deviations in commodity and oil prices, and uncertain global growth.

Macroeconomic Developments

• Real GDP growth was 3.5% in 2018, with non-extractive sectors contributing more than extractive sectors.
• Inflation declined from 3.6% y-o-y in June to 2.7% in October.
• Gross official reserves increased throughout the year, reaching $874 million (5.1 months of non-extractive imports) by end-September.
• The external current account deficit widened to close to 12% of GDP in the first half of 2018.

Fiscal Policy

• The fiscal position was solid in the first eight months of 2018, with a primary surplus of 2.6% of GDP.
• Revenues were supported by tax collections and one-off signing bonuses from the GTA project.
• Expenditure was pressured by drought-related transfers, social protection, and election-related costs.
• The authorities are committed to fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilization, and expenditure prioritization to create fiscal space for social and infrastructure spending.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• Monetary policy reforms are being implemented to improve liquidity management and exchange rate flexibility.
• The central bank introduced new monetary policy instruments and monetary policy framework.
• The real effective exchange rate was overvalued by 5–15%, which is not fully aligned with the current economic situation.
• Exchange rate flexibility is necessary to absorb exogenous shocks and preserve reserves.

Financial Sector

• Banking sector vulnerabilities persist, including high non-performing loans (NPLs) and low profitability.
• Credit to the private sector grew by 21% y-o-y in September 2018, mainly directed to telecom companies.
• Broad money growth was contained at 10% y-o-y, due to flat BCM reserve money and tight liquidity.
• Capital adequacy ratio improved to 24.5% in June 2018 due to tighter lending standards and higher capital requirements.

Structural Reforms

• Legislative reforms have been completed, including the new organic budget law, banking law, and central bank law.
• Institutional and structural reforms are ongoing to support inclusive growth, poverty reduction, and good governance.
• Efforts to improve the business environment and fight corruption are key to long-term growth and development.

Governance and Business Climate

• Governance has improved, with 28 ranks gained in four years in the Doing Business survey.
• Political context includes parliamentary and local elections in September 2018 and the presidential election in mid-2019.
• Regional security risks in the Sahel remain a major concern, and military spending could rise due to the G-5 Sahel military deployment.

Debt Sustainability

• Public sector debt stood at 84.4% of GDP in 2018.
• The updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) indicates a high risk of debt distress, with a projected exit two years later than previously expected due to less favorable macroeconomic developments.
• Prudent borrowing, including grants and concessional loans, is necessary to ensure debt sustainability.

Key Reforms and Initiatives

• Fiscal reforms: Strengthening tax policy, revenue administration, budget processes, and debt management.
• Monetary reforms: Modernizing monetary and exchange rate policies, increasing exchange rate flexibility, and improving liquidity management.
• Financial sector reforms: Strengthening bank supervision, improving banking regulations, and enhancing financial inclusion.
• Social and development policies: Expanding targeted transfers to support vulnerable households, and continuing reforms in education, health, and infrastructure.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the completion of the second review and the modification of performance criteria to reflect the less favorable global environment. The authorities are maintaining their commitment to the program, with fiscal and structural reforms on track. Continued implementation of these reforms is essential for long-term economic stability and growth.