2009年-世界发展银行全球_Sub-Saharan_Africa_Refinery_Study_44页_1mb

Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Study Summary

Core Content

The Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Study is a joint initiative by the World Bank and the African Refiners Association (ARA), supported by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). The study evaluates the impact of improving fuel specifications on urban air quality and public health, as well as the economic implications for the refining industry in the region.

The study is divided into two main components:

• Health Study: Analyzes the health benefits of improved fuel quality and vehicle emission controls.
• Refinery Study: Assesses the costs and investments required for refineries to meet cleaner fuel standards.

Main Results

Health Study Overview

The Health Study examines the reduction in air pollutants and their health effects in three selected regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) under different scenarios:

• Base Case: Current or recent historical conditions.
• Scenario 1: Reduced sulfur content in transportation fuels.
• Scenario 2: Reduced sulfur fuels, improved vehicle emission controls, an inspection and maintenance (I&M) program, and phase-out of 2-stroke engines.

The results show that Scenario 2 leads to significant health benefits, particularly in terms of reduced mortality and respiratory illness from particulate matter (PM). The monetary valuation of health benefits is summarized in Table 1, with the following highlights:

• SSA West Region:
  • Scenario 1: $640 million annual benefit, $2.6 billion 5-year NPV, $4.5 billion 10-year NPV
  • Scenario 2: $4,500 million annual benefit, $18 billion 5-year NPV, $32 billion 10-year NPV
• SSA East Region:
  • Scenario 1: $340 million annual benefit, $1.4 billion 5-year NPV, $2.4 billion 10-year NPV
  • Scenario 2: $1,300 million annual benefit, $5.3 billion 5-year NPV, $9.0 billion 10-year NPV
• SSA Southern Region:
  • Scenario 1: No benefit
  • Scenario 2: $252 million annual benefit, $1.0 billion 5-year NPV, $1.8 billion 10-year NPV

These results indicate that the health benefits of Scenario 2 far outweigh the refinery costs over both 5-year and 10-year periods.

Refinery Study Overview

The Refinery Study models the investment and operating costs for eight cases, reflecting two market scenarios:

• Constrained Market: Existing refineries are protected and remain in operation.
• Open Market: Refineries are exposed to global competition.

The study evaluates the costs of moving to AFRI-4 fuel specifications, which are recommended by ARA. The incremental investment costs for moving to AFRI-4 are shown in Table 1.3:

• 2015 (Open Market): $1.25 billion total incremental cost
• 2020 (Constrained Market): $3.27 billion total incremental cost
• 2020 (Open Market): $2.33 billion total incremental cost

The net present value (NPV) of refinery investment costs versus health benefits is summarized in Table 1.4:

• 5-Year NPV:
  • Total: $2.76 billion investment cost vs. $25 billion health benefits
  • West Africa: $0.47 billion investment cost vs. $18 billion health benefits
  • East Africa: $2.13 billion investment cost vs. $5.3 billion health benefits
• 10-Year NPV:
  • Total: $6.14 billion investment cost vs. $43 billion health benefits
  • West Africa: $4.69 billion investment cost vs. $32 billion health benefits
  • East Africa: $2.48 billion investment cost vs. $9.0 billion health benefits

These results suggest that improving fuel specifications to AFRI-4 is economically and health-wise beneficial for the SSA refining industry, even if the costs are doubled.

Key Findings

• Health Benefits: Scenario 2 leads to significant health improvements, especially in the West and East regions of SSA, due to reduced sulfur content, pollution control equipment, I&M programs, and phase-out of 2-stroke engines.
• Economic Implications: Refineries that invest in upgrading to AFRI-4 standards will see improved margins and viability, especially in an open market.
• Global Competition: SSA refineries will face intense competition from global markets, particularly from the Middle East and India. To remain competitive, they must focus on cost efficiency and operational improvements.
• Importance of Clean Fuels: Clean fuels are essential not only for health benefits but also for the optimal performance of modern vehicle technologies.
• Investment Requirements: The World® Model outlines major investments required for refineries to meet AFRI-4 standards, including desulfurization units, hydrocracking, and sulfur recovery plants.

Recommendations

• Regulatory Authorities should first bring fuel specifications in line with current refinery capabilities, and then progressively move to AFRI-4 before 2015.
• Refiners must invest in upgrading their facilities to meet the cleaner fuel standards.
• Policy support and financial incentives will be necessary to ensure that the incremental costs of upgrading are supported.
• Improved fuel quality is crucial for urban air quality and public health, and aligns with global environmental standards.