2000年-世界发展银行全球_Export_Dynamics_and_Productivity___Analysis_of_Mexican_Manufacturing_in_the_1990s_116页_6mb

Summary of Report No. 19864-ME: Mexico - Export Dynamics and Productivity

Core Content

This report analyzes the export performance of Mexican manufacturing firms during the 1990s, focusing on the impact of trade liberalization and structural reforms on productivity, firm behavior, and economic growth. It uses detailed panel databases and statistical analysis to evaluate the link between exporting and efficiency gains, as well as the broader implications of export orientation for the Mexican economy.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Macroeconomic Context and Trade Liberalization

• Mexico initiated structural reforms in the 1980s, with trade liberalization as the centerpiece.
• Entry into GATT in 1986 and subsequent reforms, such as the elimination of quantitative restrictions and the simplification of trade regulations, marked a significant shift in the economic environment.
• The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was implemented in 1994, leading to increased trade and investment flows with the U.S. and Canada.
• Mexico transitioned from being primarily an oil exporter to a major exporter of manufactured goods, with manufactured exports growing rapidly from N$49 billion in 1993 to N$338 billion in 1998.

2. Export Orientation and Firm Characteristics

• The export sector in Mexico is highly concentrated, with a few large firms accounting for a significant share of export value.
• The share of the largest 10 exporters increased from 16.5% in 1991 to 19.2% in 1994, and the largest 280 exporters from 59.2% to 64.4% during the same period.
• The U.S. remains the most important export market, with over 85% of exports going to the U.S. in 1997.
• The export orientation of firms is influenced by domestic demand conditions, with SMEs and Mexican-owned firms being more responsive to internal market dynamics than larger, foreign-owned plants.

3. Export Response During the 1994-95 Crisis

• The 1994 peso devaluation triggered a severe economic recession, leading to a sharp decline in domestic demand and investment.
• Despite this, the export sector performed strongly, increasing by 31% in 1995 and acting as a "safety valve" for many firms.
• The EIA database shows that the share of plants exporting increased from 26% in 1993 to 42% in 1997.
• Larger and foreign-owned firms were more likely to maintain long-term export presence, while SMEs often exited after the crisis.

4. Determinants of Export Status and Entry

• Regression analysis shows that macroeconomic conditions like domestic demand, peso depreciation, and interest rate variability influence the probability of exporting.
• However, the results are not robust, suggesting that other, long-term factors also play a role.
• Previous export experience is a strong determinant of current export status, due to sunk costs and market knowledge.
• High-performance workplace practices, labor skills, and investments in quality and modernization are associated with export entry and success.
• Access to credit is a critical factor, with larger, foreign-owned, and export-oriented firms better able to secure financing.

5. Exporting and Efficiency: Cause or Effect?

• The report investigates whether exporting leads to productivity gains or if more productive firms are more likely to export.
• Evidence from the EIA and maquiladora databases suggests that productivity increases occur in the years before firms enter the export market, indicating "learning-by-exporting."
• Exporting firms show higher total factor productivity (TFP) growth compared to non-exporters, with a 4.5% annual increase in TFP for each year of exporting experience.
• Performance indicators such as inventory turnover, new investment, and import share of new assets show improvements before and after export entry.

6. Supplier Development and Productivity

• Supplier development programs aim to transfer knowledge and technology from buyers to suppliers.
• Firms that become suppliers experience an initial dip in TFP but see significant gains by the sixth year of supplier status.
• Quality management practices and worker training are strongly associated with productivity growth.
• Export-oriented suppliers receive more assistance from buyers, including technical support and financing, which helps them modernize and improve efficiency.

7. Policy Implications

• The preparation phase for entering export markets is crucial for firms to build the necessary skills and infrastructure.
• Government support for enterprise training, technology diffusion, and information dissemination should be expanded.
• Buyer-supplier linkages offer a pathway for extending productivity benefits to a broader range of firms.
• The report suggests that improving access to finance is essential for SMEs and Mexican-owned firms to engage in and sustain exporting.
• Further research is needed to understand the factors that encourage "permanent" exporting behavior, especially among SMEs.

Key Findings

• Export Growth: Mexican manufactured exports grew rapidly in the 1990s, driven by trade liberalization and NAFTA.
• Concentration: Export activity is highly concentrated among a few large firms, even when excluding maquiladoras and PEMEX.
• Export Behavior: SMEs and Mexican-owned firms are more likely to engage in short-term exporting, while larger and foreign-owned firms have a more permanent presence.
• Productivity Gains: Exporting is associated with productivity improvements, both through direct learning and spillovers to suppliers.
• Credit Constraints: SMEs and Mexican-owned firms face significant credit constraints, limiting their ability to modernize and sustain export growth.

Conclusion

The report highlights the positive impact of trade liberalization on Mexican export performance and productivity growth. While the export sector has shown substantial gains, the benefits are not evenly distributed, with larger and foreign-owned firms reaping more rewards. The findings suggest that structural reforms have had a lasting effect on the manufacturing sector, but further policy efforts are needed to support SMEs and Mexican-owned firms in their transition to and sustainability in export markets.