20241103-华泰期货-油脂周报_减产季叠加需求拉动_棕榈油引领油脂上涨_12页_786kb

Market Overview:
Bloomberg豆棕榈压榨利润（元/吨）
This report analyzes the multi-oil market, focusing on price movements and key factors influencing the three major oils—palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil.
Palm Oil:
Due to a decreasing gross domestic product (GDP), palm oil inventories remain tight, but price expectations are lower. High import demand and low inventories in Indonesia support prices. With Indonesia's implementation of B40 and promotion of B50, the export demand for palm oil may continue to decline. The entrance of the harvest season reduces yield further, but there is no significant macroeconomic risk, limiting the downward space for palm oil prices.
Soybean Oil:
Net imports of soybean oil in China decreased significantly this year, holding inventories low. With low supply pressure and high overall prices, domestic soybean oil consumption has been recovering.

Soybean Oil Market Analysis
This report analyzes the global soybean oil market from November, including prices,供需, and outlook.
Price Fluctuations: In November, soybean oil prices reacted quickly to domestic implementation plans. Due to the growing concerns over US housing supply and inflation, SOY 01 was tested above 8500.
Fundamental Factors: Supply levels remain high in choice months. With the 25 Fed cuts from December and before that the potential landing path slipping down, the market keeps discounts as the inflation concern eases.3月for October.
Outlook: Long positions in soybean oil have room for profit-taking.
Demand from the Livestock Feed: The demand from the livestock feed has been weak recently, reducing net oil0 imports库存降至729万吨.
Supply Side: Input cost rose in December inventories are shrinking net imports of soybean
Demand: China 0 research and regulation provide new evidence on soybean oil.

As long as demand improves, soybean oil prices have support, but should be cautious because of the slow signing pace.

Canola Oil:
Due to the harvest progress in Western Canada, rapeseed exports are concentrated, slowing the pace of delivery. Due to the combination of harvest progression and export demand, the UC rapeseed crush beat expectations.
Price Analysis: In early November, with the US dollar weakening and moderately stable oil fundamentals globally, rapeseed oil in the region has increased on deliveries.
Inventory Situation: Total inventories of rapeseed oil finished the week at 79896. Registered lower inventories than the previous week. The supply side is tightening. Canada announced intentions to supply over 3 million metric tons.
Trend: Inventory levels in China are tightening.
The report will provide a detailedTechnical View focusing on both short-term trends and macroeconomic risk factors.

1️⃣📈 Rising crude oil prices and regional geopolitics elevate macro risks concerning palm oil stockpiles.
2️⃣🛢️ Product profit margins improved as gasoline refiners Value economic freedom scores are projected at 74.5.