20140407-大华银行-Earnings_Wrap-Up__Tentative_Signs_Of_A_Bottoming_Out_26页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - April 07, 2014
Core Content
This document provides a detailed analysis of the financial markets in China, Indonesia, and Malaysia, focusing on earnings performance, sector updates, and investment recommendations.
Main Points
China
- Earnings Performance: Net profit for stocks under coverage increased by 8.4% yoy in 2013, with net margins expanding by 0.9ppt to 12.3%. However, earnings revisions for cyclical sectors became less negative, suggesting the bottoming out of the earnings downgrade cycle.
- Sector Trends:
- Consumer: Staples outperformed discretionary sectors in 2013, and this trend is expected to continue in 2014. Staples saw a 14.7% yoy net profit growth, while discretionary sectors grew by 10.2% yoy.
- Automobile: Mid-range to high-end OEMs outperformed mass market automakers and dealers. Top picks include Brilliance, Dongfeng Motor (DFM), and Guangzhou Auto (GAC). SELL recommendations are given to Great Wall Motor (GWM) and BYD due to declining market share and over-optimistic market views.
- Key Recommendations:
- BUY: Brilliance (1114 HK), DFM (489 HK), GAC (2238 HK), GAGC (2238 HK), Dah Chong Hong (1828 HK), and China Mengniu (2319 HK).
- SELL: BYD (1211 HK), GWM (2333 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), Parkson (3368 HK), Uni-president (220 HK), and Xstep (1368 HK).
- Market Catalysts:
- Strong monthly automobile sales figures and 1Q14 earnings could drive stock prices.
- Risks:
- A worse-than-expected slowdown in China's economy, anti-Japanese riots, and car license quotas in cities could negatively impact stock prices.
- PEER COMPARISON:
- Brilliance, DFM, and GAC showed strong performance, while BYD and GWM underperformed. The document also highlights the PE, P/B, and EV/EBITDA ratios for selected companies.
Indonesia
- Strategy:
- The document recommends investing in companies with high yields, outperformance potential, and growth, including PGAS, BBTN, BBNI, BBRI, MLBI, ITMG, and TLKM.
- Key Assumptions:
- GDP growth for Indonesia is expected to be 5.8% in 2014, with a target of 6.0% for 2015.
Malaysia
- Update:
- Genting Malaysia Bhd (GENM MK) is maintained at HOLD due to muted earnings growth and lack of catalysts.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16412.7 | -1.0 | 0.5 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| S&P 500 | 1865.1 | -1.3 | 0.4 | -0.7 | 0.9 |
| FTSE 100 | 6695.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| AS30 | 5428.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.9 | 1.4 |
| CSI 300 | 2185.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | -6.2 |
| FSSTI | 3212.7 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| HSCEI | 10110.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 4.1 | -6.5 |
| HSI | 22510.1 | -0.2 | 2.0 | -0.7 | -3.4 |
| JCI | 4857.9 | -0.7 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 13.7 |
| KLCI | 1856.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | -0.6 |
| KOSPI | 1988.1 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -1.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 15063.8 | -0.1 | 2.5 | -1.4 | -7.5 |
| SET | 1392.0 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 7.2 |
| TWSE | 8888.5 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| BDI | 1205 | -2.4 | -12.2 | -21.9 | -47.1 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2702 | -1.5 | -3.3 | -4.7 | 5.0 |
| Nymex Crude | 101 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -1.6 | 2.6 |
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Current Price (HK$) | Target Price (HK$) | Potential Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliance | 1114 HK | 12.18 | 17.50 | 44 |
| GAGC | 2238 HK | 8.05 | 11.00 | 37 |
| China Mengniu | 2319 HK | 39.60 | 44.10 | 11 |
| Dah Chong Hong | 1828 HK | 5.04 | 5.90 | 17 |
Analysts
- Tham Mun Hon: +852 2236-6799, Munhon.tham@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Benjamin Ho: +852 2236-6798, Benjamin.ho@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Ken Lee: +852 2236 6760, ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Renee Tai: +852 2826 1324, renee.tai@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Dongbi Cui: +8621 5404 7225 ext 809, dongbi@uobkayhian.com
Summary of Key Recommendations
- China:
- Maintain BUY for Brilliance, DFM, and GAC.
- Maintain SELL for GWM and BYD.
- Indonesia:
- Recommend investing in PGAS, BBTN, BBNI, BBRI, MLBI, ITMG, and TLKM.
- Malaysia:
- Maintain HOLD for Genting Malaysia Bhd (GENM MK) due to muted earnings growth and lack of catalysts.
Sector Performance
| Sector | YTD % |
|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | -7.80 |
| Consumer Staples | -7.45 |
| Energy | -6.23 |
| Financials | -9.07 |
| Healthcare | -0.91 |
| Industrials | -8.09 |
| IT | -6.39 |
| Materials | -0.24 |
| Telecommunications | 12.83 |
| Utilities | -4.01 |
| MSCI China | -6.52 |
Corporate Events
- Xingda International Corporate Roadshow & Luncheons: Taipei, 16-17 Apr
- SPT Energy Corporate Roadshow: Boston, New York, 7-10 Apr
- Malaysian Oil & Gas Sector Analyst Presentation: Taipei, 8 Apr
- Indonesia 2H14 Market Strategy: Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, 8-11 Apr
- JLM Corporation Corporate Roadshow: Taipei, 9-10 Apr
- China Fiber Optic Network Luncheon: Hong Kong, 10 Apr
- Palm Oil Dialogue Session: Kuala Lumpur, 11 Apr
- Malaysia Aica Corporate Roadshow: Singapore, 11 Apr
Summary of Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP Growth (%) |
|---|---|
| US | 2.0 |
| Euro Zone | -0.4 |
| Japan | 1.5 |
| Singapore | 4.1* |
| Malaysia | 4.7* |
| Thailand | 2.9* |
| Indonesia | 5.8* |
| Hong Kong | 3.0 |
| China | 7.7* |
Note: Actual growth figures for 2013 and 2014F.
Key Recommendations Summary
- China:
- BUY: Brilliance, DFM, GAC, GAGC, Dah Chong Hong, China Mengniu
- SELL: BYD, GWM, Li Ning, Parkson, Uni-president, Xstep
- Indonesia:
- Recommend positions in PGAS, BBTN, BBNI, BBRI, MLBI, ITMG, and TLKM
- Malaysia:
- Maintain HOLD for Genting Malaysia Bhd (GENM MK) due to muted earnings growth and lack of catalysts
Conclusion
The report highlights a mixed performance across sectors in China, with a focus on consumer staples and premium car OEMs showing stronger results. It also notes the potential for earnings revisions to stabilize and the importance of policy support in driving short-term growth. Investment recommendations are based on the companies' performance, growth potential, and market conditions.
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