20180604-中国银河国际证券-Strategy__Short_Selling_Analysis_for_May_25_6页_562kb
报告摘要
Short Selling Analysis Summary for May 25, 2018
Core Content Overview
This report presents a short-selling analysis for May 25, 2018, based on data released by the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Limited (HKSC). The analysis focuses on identifying companies that may be vulnerable to short-selling activity by examining three key criteria: the net change in short positions between May 18 and May 25, short positions as a percentage of free float, and the absolute amount of short positions.
Key Findings
1. Genscript Bio (1548.HK)
- Short positions increased by 26.8% during the week ended May 25.
- Outstanding short positions equaled 7.3% of its free float.
- This is the first time since mid-April that short positions have rebounded, suggesting potential concerns.
- The company's stock price decreased by 4.0% during the period.
- Market cap: HK$49,725 million.
- 2018E PER: 145.56x, 2019E PER: 125.48x, PBR: 28.96x.
- Dividend yield: 0.00%.
- Short positions to 3-month average daily turnover: 1.88.
2. Car Dealership Companies
- Yongda Auto (3669.HK) and Grand Baoxin (1293.HK) both experienced significant drops in short positions.
- Yongda Auto's short positions fell by 21%, while Grand Baoxin's dropped by 14%.
- The decline is attributed to the government's announcement about cutting import tariffs for vehicles and automotive components.
- Both companies saw relatively small changes in stock prices, with Yongda Auto's price rising by 0.2% and Grand Baoxin's by -1.9%.
3. China Construction Bank (0939.HK)
- Short positions fell by 32.7%.
- Although the short positions represented only 1% of its free float, the decline involved HK$3.5 billion.
- The stock price decreased by 1.5% during the period.
Data Source and Limitations
- HKSFC releases aggregate short positions data for all eligible stocks every Friday with a one-week delay.
- HKEx provides daily short-selling activity data, but it does not specify whether the short positions are covered.
- The data does not cover short-selling activity via OTC derivative products, which may limit its completeness.
Analysis Criteria
The analysis was conducted using the following three angles:
- Net change in short positions between May 18 and May 25
- Short positions as a percentage of free float
- Absolute amount of short positions
Summary Table
| Company Name | Short Positions Change | Short Positions % of Free Float | Short Positions Amount (HK$) | Price Change (May 18 - May 25) | Market Cap (HK$m) | 2018E PER | 2019E PER | PBR | 2018E Dividend Yield | Short Positions / Daily Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genscript Bio | +26.8% | 7.3% | HK$815,519,436 | -4.0% | 49,725 | 145.56 | 125.48 | 28.96 | 0.00% | 1.88 |
| Yongda Auto | -21% | 2.9% | HK$275,819,385 | +0.2% | 17,167 | 6.92 | 5.56 | 1.69 | 4.25% | 4.38 |
| Grand Baoxin | -14% | 2.9% | HK$58,523,512 | -1.9% | 10,016 | 7.34 | 6.09 | 1.20 | 2.43% | 6.52 |
| China Construction Bank | -32.7% | 1% | HK$7,302,826,638 | -1.5% | 1,996,795 | 6.20 | 5.66 | 0.78 | 5.68% | 1.06 |
Conclusion
The analysis highlights the importance of monitoring short-selling trends for potential market volatility. While Genscript Bio shows increased short positions, the car dealership companies and China Construction Bank demonstrate significant declines, possibly due to external factors like policy changes. The data provides valuable insights into market sentiment but has limitations, particularly regarding OTC derivative products. Investors are advised to use this information cautiously and consider additional factors before making investment decisions.
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