2017全球支付报告_52页-4mb

World Payments Report 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The World Payments Report (WPR) 2017 is an in-depth analysis of the global non-cash payments environment, produced by Capgemini and BNP Paribas. The report explores historical trends, future growth projections, and the evolution of next-generation payment technologies, while also addressing key regulatory and industry initiatives shaping the payments landscape.

Key Findings and Main Points

Historical Non-Cash Transaction Volume Analysis

• Global non-cash transaction volumes grew by 11.2% during 2014–2015, reaching 433.1 billion transactions — the highest growth rate of the past decade.
• Emerging Asia and CEMEA (Central Europe, Middle East, and Africa) were the main growth drivers, with growth rates of 43.4% and 16.4%, respectively.
• Developing economies showed 21.6% growth in 2015, while mature markets grew by 6.8%, slightly above the 2014 growth rate.
• China and India led the growth in Emerging Asia, with China's non-cash transactions increasing significantly due to mobile payment adoption.
• Debit cards and credit transfers dominated digital payment instruments in 2015, with debit cards accounting for 46.7% of global non-cash transactions.
• Check usage continued to decline globally, with a 13.4% drop in 2015, driven by the rise of electronic payment methods.
• Contactless payments became more prevalent in Europe, with the UK leading in adoption, reaching 106.9 million contactless cards in circulation by 2015.

Forward Looking Analysis

• Global non-cash transaction volumes are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% from 2015 to 2020, with developing economies growing at 19.6%.
• Emerging economies will likely outpace mature economies, with Emerging Asia expected to grow at a CAGR of 30.9%, driven by China and India.
• China is projected to experience 36.5% CAGR in non-cash transactions, potentially surpassing the US as the leading market by 2020.
• India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.2%, with government initiatives and digital payment expansion fueling the growth.
• Africa and Latin America are expected to see stable growth rates of 8–10% due to increased smartphone adoption and population growth.
• Brazil will remain the dominant market in Latin America, while Mexico is projected to see a fourfold increase in mobile spending by 2019.
• E- and m-payments are expected to account for 32% of global non-cash transaction volumes by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 10.5%.
• Biometric authentication and artificial intelligence are expected to challenge and redefine future payment models.

Evolution of Next-Generation Payments

• Technological innovations like the Internet of Things (IoT) and blockchain are expected to transform the payments market, with data becoming central to payment systems.
• M2M and consumer electronic devices are expected to grow significantly, with over 15 billion connected devices by 2021.
• Blockchain is being tested for mobile wallets and P2P payment schemes, and may see increased adoption in the future.
• Wearable payments and smartphone-based payments are expected to disrupt the payments market, with biometrics playing a key role in enhancing security and user experience.
• Retail customers will be the primary drivers of next-generation payment adoption, with regulators playing a crucial role in enabling a level playing field.
• Collaboration among incumbents, FinTechs, and regulators is essential to avoid complexity and delays in the adoption of new payment technologies.

Key Regulations and Industry Initiatives

• PSD2 (Payment Services Directive 2) is a major regulatory driver pushing for open banking and collaboration.
• Standardization and transparency are emphasized as key factors for industry-wide innovation and customer-centric solutions.
• Cybersecurity and data privacy are critical challenges in the new payments ecosystem, with measures such as blockchain and open APIs being proposed as solutions.
• Trust is increasingly being viewed as a valuable asset in a collaborative environment.
• Regulatory changes and industry initiatives are expected to shape the future of the payments ecosystem, especially in developing markets.

The New Payments Ecosystem

• Structural changes in the industry are driving the development of a new payments ecosystem, with open APIs and instant payments playing a vital role.
• Collaboration between banks, FinTechs, and third-party developers is necessary to create innovative and secure payment solutions.
• Technical hurdles such as lack of standardization and cybersecurity vulnerabilities are slowing the pace of ecosystem development.
• Blockchain technology is being explored for secure and real-time collaboration, although its scalability remains a challenge.
• Standardization is seen as a key enabler for the new payments ecosystem, helping to reduce complexity and promote interoperability.

Conclusion

The WPR 2017 highlights the rapid growth of non-cash transactions, especially in developing economies, and underscores the importance of innovation, collaboration, and regulatory support in shaping the future of the payments industry. While cash remains dominant in some regions, the digital shift is expected to continue, driven by mobile payments, blockchain, and biometric authentication. The report calls for strategic adaptation by banks and industry players to navigate the evolving landscape and prepare for an increasingly digital and interconnected payments world.