2018年-ECB欧洲央行_ecbcr201805_209页_2mb

Convergence Report Summary (May 2018)

Introduction

This report, issued by the European Central Bank (ECB), evaluates the economic convergence of seven EU Member States that have not yet adopted the euro: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden. These countries are committed to joining the euro area under the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). The ECB fulfills its obligation under Article 140 of the TFEU to report on the progress of these countries in meeting the convergence criteria. The report also assesses the compatibility of national legislation with the TFEU and the Statute of the ECB. The statistical data used in the analysis were provided by the European Commission, with cooperation from the ECB for exchange rates and long-term interest rates. The cut-off date for the statistics was 3 May 2018, with the report adopted by the ECB General Council on 17 May 2018.

Framework for Analysis

The ECB uses a consistent framework for evaluating economic and legal convergence, based on the TFEU and related legal instruments.

2.1 Economic Convergence

The analysis is based on the following criteria:

• Price stability: Inflation must be close to that of the three best-performing Member States in terms of price stability.
• Fiscal sustainability: Government budgetary position must not be excessive, as defined by the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).
• Exchange rate stability: Exchange rates must remain within the normal fluctuation margins of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) for at least two years without devaluation.
• Long-term interest rates: These must be close to the average of the three lowest long-term interest rates in the euro area.
• Other relevant factors: Includes structural and institutional aspects, monetary policy orientation, and long-term economic outlook.

2.2 Legal Compatibility

The ECB checks whether the national legislation of the countries under review is compatible with the TFEU and the Statute of the ECB. This includes the statutes of their National Central Banks (NCBs) and their adherence to the rules governing the Eurosystem.

State of Economic Convergence

The report provides a horizontal overview of the key aspects of economic convergence, emphasizing the importance of sustainability. It highlights that:

• Economic convergence is assessed using both backward-looking and forward-looking indicators.
• The backward-looking perspective considers the past ten years of economic performance, particularly in terms of price stability and fiscal sustainability.
• The forward-looking perspective takes into account forecasts and the medium-term fiscal strategy of each country, including the impact of future economic challenges and policy responses.

Country Summaries

Country summaries are provided for each of the seven Member States, outlining the main findings of the convergence analysis and the compatibility of their legislation with the TFEU. These summaries include:

• Bulgaria: The report evaluates its inflation, fiscal, exchange rate, and interest rate developments.
• Czech Republic: Similar evaluation is conducted, with a focus on its fiscal sustainability and exchange rate stability.
• Croatia: Assessed for its compliance with the convergence criteria and legal framework.
• Hungary: Examined in terms of economic and fiscal performance, as well as legal compatibility.
• Poland: The analysis includes its inflation, fiscal, and exchange rate developments.
• Romania: Evaluation of economic convergence and fiscal sustainability.
• Sweden: The report reviews its economic and fiscal developments, as well as its legal framework.

Examination of Economic Convergence in Individual Countries

Each country is examined in detail, with a focus on:

• Price developments: Analysis of inflation trends, comparison with the three best-performing Member States, and assessment of monetary policy orientation.
• Fiscal developments: Review of government deficit and debt ratios, their evolution over time, and the impact of economic cycles and structural changes.
• Exchange rate developments: Evaluation of ERM II participation, exchange rate stability, and factors influencing exchange rate fluctuations.
• Long-term interest rates: Comparison with the euro area average, and the role of monetary policy in maintaining interest rate stability.
• Other factors: Includes institutional aspects, structural integration with the euro area, and the role of central bank liquidity assistance.

Statistical Methodology

Chapter 6 outlines the statistical methodology used to compile convergence indicators, emphasizing the importance of high-quality and reliable data. Key points include:

• The use of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for inflation analysis.
• Compliance with ESA 2010 standards for national accounts data.
• Consideration of both historical and forecast data for fiscal and economic assessments.
• The inclusion of various indicators such as exchange rate volatility, interest rate differentials, and capital account balances to assess convergence.

Legal Compatibility

Chapter 7 examines the compatibility of national legislation with the TFEU, particularly Articles 130 and 131, and the Statute of the ECB. The analysis includes:

• Review of the legal framework governing the NCBs.
• Assessment of whether the countries have introduced fiscal rules in their constitutions or equivalent laws.
• Consideration of the role of the European Commission and the EU Council in determining excessive deficits.

Conventions Used in the Tables

• "-" indicates data not available or not applicable.
• "data are not yet available" is used for incomplete or future data.

Key Findings

• The ECB emphasizes the importance of sustainability in economic convergence.
• The report uses a consistent and transparent framework across all countries.
• No country was identified as an outlier in terms of inflation developments.
• The analysis includes both historical data and forecasts to ensure a comprehensive evaluation.
• Legal compatibility is assessed alongside economic convergence to ensure readiness for euro adoption.

Conclusion

This report serves as a critical assessment of the economic and legal readiness of seven EU Member States to adopt the euro. It provides a detailed analysis of each country's performance against the convergence criteria, highlighting the need for sustained economic and fiscal discipline, as well as legal and institutional alignment with the Eurosystem. The ECB aims to ensure that the countries under review are well-prepared for the transition to the euro area.