国际战略研究中心-中东和北非的军事动态（英文）-2020.10-125页

Summary of The Changing Security Dynamics of the Middle East and North Africa

Core Content

This document analyzes the evolving security dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on the role of external powers, the impact of military interventions, and the challenges to regional stability. It highlights the increasing involvement of outside actors in supporting internal conflicts and the shift in the strategic priorities of various countries and international players.

Main Points

1. Security Dynamics and External Involvement

• The MENA region has become a battleground for struggles between governments and non-state actors, with external powers providing military aid, weapons, and advisors.
• The role of outside support is often driven by political, ideological, and strategic interests rather than the enhancement of security and stability.
• Many countries use external military support to bolster their internal security, maintain regime stability, and counter external threats.

2. Shift in Power Dynamics

• The U.S. and its European allies have seen a decline in their influence, while Russia and China have emerged as more significant players.
• The U.S. has shifted its focus from direct military engagement to economic pressure and sanctions, particularly against Iran.
• Russia has become a major arms supplier and has deployed military forces in Syria and Libya.
• China is increasing its military presence and influence in the region, particularly through naval and air bases in Djibouti and growing arms exports.

3. Impact on Regional Stability

• The region has become more fragmented and unstable due to ongoing civil wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
• The Arab-Israeli conflict remains unresolved, with Israel continuing to clash with Hezbollah and Iran.
• The GCC has become more of a political than a military alliance, with internal divisions and conflicts.
• The U.S. and its allies have contributed to the instability through their military interventions and support for regional factions.

4. Military Spending and Arms Transfers

• Military spending in the MENA region is high by global standards, but it often strains local economies.
• The U.S. remains the largest arms supplier to the region, but its role is being challenged by Russia and China.
• Data on military spending and arms transfers are often incomplete, politicized, or unreliable.
• The U.S. provides more transparency through databases like WMEAT, but even these have limitations and gaps.

5. Challenges in Measuring Security Dynamics

• Reliable data on the size, structure, and capabilities of regional military and security forces are limited.
• There is a lack of transparency in the reporting of military presence, training, and support.
• The role of non-state actors, such as militias and terrorist groups, is often underreported or misunderstood.
• Humanitarian aid is frequently overlooked in military and security assessments, despite its importance in conflict resolution.

Key Information

Arms Transfers and Military Support

• The U.S., Russia, and European countries are the main suppliers of arms to the MENA region.
• The U.S. has been the largest supplier, but its influence is waning.
• Russia has increased its arms exports to countries like Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Syria, and Iraq.
• China is emerging as a growing arms supplier and is considering strategic partnerships with Iran.

Regional Conflicts

• Libya: The fall of Gaddafi led to a split into warring factions, with external powers supporting different sides.
• Syria: The conflict has drawn in Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, while Western countries support various rebel factions.
• Yemen: A civil war has been exacerbated by Saudi and UAE support for the government and Iranian backing for the Houthis.
• Israel and Palestine: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved, with Israel continuing to arm itself and engage in military actions against Palestinian and Lebanese groups.

Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook

• The U.S. is reevaluating its military role in the region, particularly in light of long-term conflicts and economic constraints.
• The U.S. has withdrawn from the JCPOA, leading to uncertainty in nuclear proliferation and security dynamics.
• European countries have reduced their military involvement, with limited presence and support.
• Russia is expanding its military footprint and strategic partnerships, particularly with Iran.
• China is increasing its influence and military presence, with potential strategic ties to Iran.

Data Limitations

• Official data on military spending and arms transfers are often incomplete or biased.
• Non-state actors and their military capabilities are underreported.
• There is a lack of transparency in the support provided by external powers, including training, maintenance, and logistics.
• Humanitarian and civil aid are not always considered part of military or security assistance.

Conclusion

The MENA region is experiencing a complex and volatile security environment, shaped by the increasing involvement of external powers and the fragmentation of internal conflicts. While the U.S. remains a dominant arms supplier, its role is being challenged by rising influence from Russia and China. The lack of reliable and comprehensive data complicates efforts to assess the true nature of these security dynamics, making it difficult to develop effective strategies for stability and peace. The region's future remains uncertain, with ongoing conflicts, shifting alliances, and the potential for new forms of warfare and security challenges.