2017Q4中国制药与医疗保障报告：2017-2026十年预测（英文）-BMI_Research-118页

报告摘要

China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Summary (Q4 2017)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare market in China, including 10-year forecasts to 2026. It highlights the evolving demographic and epidemiological landscape, regulatory changes, market trends, and the impact of pricing reforms on the industry. The report also examines the competitive landscape, key players, and the role of both public and private sectors in shaping the future of healthcare in the country.

Main Viewpoints

Market Growth Drivers

Demographic changes: A rapidly ageing population is increasing the demand for medicines to treat chronic diseases.
Healthcare reforms: Ongoing reforms are improving the healthcare system and creating a more market-oriented environment.
Rising incomes and chronic disease prevalence: These factors are expected to support continued growth in pharmaceutical and healthcare spending.

Risks

Pharmaceutical price reductions: Phased price cuts, particularly through drug tendering, pose short-term challenges for multinational firms.
Regulatory challenges: Complex provincial reimbursement policies, slow drug registration, and strict pricing regimes remain obstacles.
Intellectual property concerns: Weak enforcement of patent laws is a concern for foreign drugmakers.
Counterfeit drugs: A large counterfeit sector threatens the reputation of Chinese pharmaceuticals.

Key Forecasts

Pharmaceutical Market

2016: CNY718.7bn (USD108.1bn)
2017: CNY809.9bn (USD117.9bn), representing a +12.7% growth in local currency and +9% in USD terms.
2021: Forecasted at CNY1156.5bn (USD156.2bn), with a CAGR of 10.0% in local currency and 7.6% in USD terms.
2026: Expected to reach CNY1706.98bn (USD227.6bn), with a 10-year CAGR of 9.0% in local currency and 7.7% in USD terms.
Per capita pharmaceutical sales: Increased from USD77.05 in 2016 to USD109.4 in 2021.
Pharmaceutical sales as % of GDP: Remains relatively stable at around 0.95% in 2016 and is expected to stay at 1.02% by 2021.
Pharmaceutical sales as % of health expenditure: Expected to decrease from 16.35% in 2016 to 12.45% in 2026.

Healthcare Market

2016: CNY4394.5bn (USD661.2bn)
2017: CNY4901.6bn (USD713.4bn), a +11.5% growth in local currency and +7.9% in USD terms.
2021: Forecasted at CNY7669.9bn (USD1036.5bn), with a CAGR of 11.8% in local currency and 9.4% in USD terms.
2026: Expected to reach CNY13707.1bn (USD1827.6bn), representing 8.14% of GDP.
Government healthcare expenditure: 55.1% of total health spending in 2016, expected to decrease to 51.77% by 2021.
Private healthcare expenditure: 44.9% of total health spending in 2016, expected to rise to 48.23% by 2021.

Competitive Landscape

Multinational companies: Actively expanding in China through manufacturing and partnerships.
Local firms: Increasingly looking to export their products, which encourages market development.
Pharmaceutical trade: Expected to grow steadily, with 80% of sales coming from the tendering process.

Regulatory and Policy Developments

CFDA's alignment with international standards: Became a member of the International Council for Harmonisation in June 2017.
National Drug Reimbursement List (NRDL): Updated in July 2017, adding 36 new drugs, including those from GSK, Roche, and AstraZeneca.
Pricing negotiations: Continued pressure on drug prices, with provinces piloting new fixed-reimbursement systems.
DRG-based reimbursement: Introduced to control medical costs and promote generic drug use.
Government reforms: Aim to modernise public hospitals and improve healthcare management.

Risk/Reward Index

China scores 70.5/100 in BMI's Innovative Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Index, ranking 4th in the Asia-Pacific region.
Risks: Pricing pressures, weak IP environment, complex regulations, and counterfeit issues.
Rewards: Large market size, growth potential, and government support for biotechnology and R&D.

Strategic Opportunities

Biotechnology focus: A key component of China's 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans, offering long-term investment potential.
Private sector growth: Expected to play a pivotal role in healthcare expansion, increasing opportunities for multinational firms.
Innovation and R&D: Both multinational and local firms are increasing R&D investments, supported by government initiatives.

Summary of Key Trends

Ageing population: Drives demand for chronic disease treatments, particularly in oncology.
Chronic diseases: Expected to increase prevalence, leading to higher prescription drug usage.
Price controls: Remain a major challenge, especially with the tendering process.
Healthcare infrastructure: Government investment in modern hospitals is expected to increase overall medicine uptake.
Economic and political outlook: Government spending growth is expected to slow, while private spending will rise, reflecting a shift in the healthcare landscape.

Conclusion

China's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets are poised for long-term growth, driven by demographic changes, chronic disease prevalence, and regulatory reforms. However, challenges such as pricing pressures, IP protection, and counterfeit drugs will continue to affect the industry. Multinational firms are adapting to these changes by increasing R&D investments and forming strategic partnerships with local players, while the government's push for innovation and modernisation offers a promising outlook for the sector.

展开完整摘要

试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载