战略与国际研究中心-US-Policy-to-End-Sudans-War_20页_250kb

U.S. Policy to End Sudan's War: Summary

Core Content

The CSIS Task Force on U.S.-Sudan Policy was established in 2000 to address the ongoing internal war in Sudan and to provide pragmatic recommendations for the new U.S. administration. The report emphasizes the need for a multilateral and diplomatic approach to end the conflict, which has caused immense human suffering and regional instability.

Main Findings

• Sudan's War Matters to U.S. Interests: The war has resulted in over 2 million deaths, displaced 4.4 million people, and led to widespread human rights abuses, including aerial bombardments of humanitarian sites, religious persecution, and slavery.
• U.S. Policy Shortfalls: The Clinton administration's approach of isolation and containment failed to end the war or reform Khartoum. It also inadvertently increased Khartoum's resistance and strengthened the opposition's resolve.
• Oil's Impact on the Conflict: Sudan's newfound oil wealth has shifted military power in favor of the government, but it has also created new economic and political challenges. The U.S. must address the strategic imbalance and leverage created by this resource.
• Regional Peace Initiatives Are Ineffective: IGAD (Inter-Governmental Authority on Development) has not succeeded in bringing the parties to meaningful negotiations. The Egypt/Libya initiative is seen as a counter to IGAD.
• U.S. Leverage Is Unique: The U.S. is the only major power not engaged in dialogue with Khartoum and is the main external supporter of the southern opposition. This position provides a strategic advantage in promoting peace.

Key Recommendations

The Bush administration is urged to adopt a focused, multilateral strategy to end Sudan's war. The report outlines the following key recommendations:

1. Concentrate Policy on Ending the War

• The U.S. should prioritize ending the war as the central objective.
• This will directly contribute to restoring human rights, stability, and democratic governance in Sudan.

2. Establish an International Nucleus for Peace Talks

• Create a new international coalition with the UK, Norway, and Sudan's neighbors to push for serious and sustained negotiations.
• The coalition should focus on ending the war and not be distracted by other issues.

3. Leverage the Declaration of Principles (DOP)

• Use the DOP as the basis for negotiations.
• Aim to achieve an interim arrangement of "One Sudan, Two Systems," allowing for self-governance in both the north and south.

4. Enhance Multilateral Inducements and Pressures

• Develop a high-level international plan for a self-governing south.
• Prioritize confidence-building measures, human rights improvements, revenue-sharing, and border clarification.
• Resume full operations of the U.S. embassy in Khartoum, including the appointment of a high-level envoy.

5. Address U.S. and Regional Security Concerns

• The U.S. must address the threat of terrorism and proxy wars emanating from Sudan.
• Support the successful conclusion of U.S.-Sudan negotiations on terrorism.

6. Strengthen the South's Position

• Provide international guarantees and support to the southern opposition to ensure they can negotiate from a position of strength.
• Avoid policies that could undermine the south's ability to resist military subjugation.

7. Engage with Regional and International Partners

• Work closely with the EU, Canada, and UN officials to coordinate a unified peace effort.
• Secure support from key IGAD members for a new, more effective peace initiative.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the U.S. has a unique opportunity to lead a multilateral effort to end Sudan's war and promote a sustainable peace. The "One Sudan, Two Systems" model is seen as a viable path forward, provided it is supported by international guarantees and concerted diplomatic engagement. The U.S. must shift from a policy of isolation to one of active diplomacy and strategic leverage to achieve these goals.

CSIS Sudan Task Force

The task force was cochaired by Francis M. Deng and J. Stephen Morrison, and included over 50 participants from various sectors including government, academia, and humanitarian organizations. The report reflects a strong majority consensus, though not universal agreement, among its members.

This summary highlights the central issues, U.S. strategic position, and policy recommendations for addressing Sudan's internal conflict. It underscores the need for a diplomatic and multilateral approach to achieve lasting peace.