20240614-瑞达期货-纯碱玻璃市场周报_15页_1mb

纯碱玻璃市场周报摘要

行情回顾

纯碱市场本周震荡偏弱，纯碱现货价格下跌，基差走强。玻璃现货价格小幅波动，部分地区因节前备货而价格稳中有升。

行情展望

纯碱供应端近期恢复，产量增加，库存持续处于高位；下游需求表现一般，消费量尚可，但在低位和高价成交上存在分歧。玻璃方面，玻璃产能利用率下降，库存小幅增长，但地产政策支持预期改善未来需求；深加工和出口订单情况尚待观察。

策略建议

纯碱短端建议在2080-2220区间交易；玻璃短线建议在1630-1680区间操作。

期现市场表现

本周纯碱和玻璃主力合约均呈下跌态势，期价震荡调整。

价差与基差

纯碱期货9-1价差维持87点，玻璃期货9-1价差保持4点；纯碱、玻璃现货基差均呈现走强趋势。

持仓分析

纯碱前20席位净空头头寸增加，市场情绪偏空；玻璃多空持仓基本持平。

上游动态

纯碱产量及开工率上升，库存继续增加；合成氨价格上涨，原盐价格维持稳定。

下游动态

浮法玻璃产能利用率小幅下滑；玻璃深加工订单天数环比减少，订单支撑不足，出口方面亦有压力。

原文摘要翻译

Market Recap

The pure碱 market experienced fluctuating and slightly declining trends this week. Glass prices saw minor adjustments, varying by region.

Market Outlook

Pure碱 supply remains robustdue to increased production capacity with no recent scheduled shutdowns. Downstream demand remains mixed, with some resistance to higher prices despite supportive projects like photovoltaic玻璃 applications. Glass demand faces policy support but lacks corresponding improvement in the downstream sector.

Strategy Recommendations

Suggested short-term trading ranges for pure碱 are between 2080 and 2220, and for glass between 1630-1680 on the 9th contract month.

Market Conditions

Both纯碱 and玻璃 futures主力 contracts registered weekly declines during the past week.

Spread Analysis

The 9-1 spread for both pure碱 and glass was relatively stable.基差 for both pure碱 and glass showed strengthening movements.

Positioning Analysis

Clearance for pure碱 increased among top positions, indicating bearish sentiment;glass net positions remained relatively stable.

Upstream Dynamics

Both pure碱 production and inventory levels continue to rise, while synthetic ammonia prices increased;salt prices stayed unaltered on nationwide scale.

Downstream Dynamics

Float glass production utilization dipped slightly, collection experienced slow growth, and downstream glass orders showed a decline, largely attributable to factors including shipping constraints