2017年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Economic_Monitor_October_2017___Refugee_Crisis_in_MENA_Meeting_the_Development_Challenges_90页_12mb

Summary of the World Bank MENA Economic Monitor: Refugee Crisis in MENA - Meeting the Development Challenge

Core Content

This report by the World Bank provides an analysis of the economic developments and challenges in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a particular focus on the refugee crisis and its implications for development. It outlines the region's macroeconomic performance, the impact of the oil market, and the policy responses needed to address the multifaceted development challenges posed by the refugee situation.

Main Points

Global and Regional Economic Outlook

• Global Economic Growth: The global economy is projected to grow by 2.9% over the next two years, up from 2.4% in 2016, driven by strong domestic demand, improved industrial production, and increased exports.
• MENA Economic Recovery: The economic activity in the MENA region, which started to improve in mid-2016, is expected to moderate in 2017 due to slower growth in oil exporters. However, growth is projected to exceed 3% in 2018 and 2019, aided by global growth, increased trade with Europe and Asia, stabilized commodity markets, and regional reforms.
• GCC Performance: The GCC countries are expected to grow at 2.7% in 2019, below pre-2014 levels. Saudi Arabia's growth is projected to fall to 0.3% in 2017, then rise to 2% in 2019, while Kuwait's growth is expected to be 3.5% in 2019.
• Developing Oil Importers: Egypt is expected to grow faster in 2017 due to a rebound in agricultural output, while Morocco and Tunisia are projected to grow at 4.1% and 3.5% respectively in 2019.

Oil Market Developments

• Oil Prices: Oil prices have remained between $48 and $55 per barrel since mid-2016 due to supply-side imbalances.
• Production Cuts: OPEC and non-OPEC members have collectively cut production, with compliance estimated at 75%. However, some countries, such as Libya, Angola, and Nigeria, have increased output, contributing to higher oil inventories.
• Future Outlook: The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil prices will remain low through 2020 due to continued production growth in the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries, as well as the potential extension of OPEC cuts.

Key Development Challenges

Four Interlinked Crises

1. Education: Refugees in the region, particularly in Lebanon, face challenges in accessing quality education. The enrollment in public schools in Lebanon has increased, but the distribution of refugees across vulnerable localities remains uneven.
2. Health: The health of refugees is a major concern, especially in the context of ongoing conflicts and limited access to healthcare services.
3. Jobs: High youth unemployment is a critical issue, with over 30% of the youth population in the region being unemployed. Refugees are particularly affected due to limited job opportunities and integration challenges.
4. Livelihoods: Supporting the livelihoods of refugees is essential for long-term development. This includes both direct assistance and creating conditions for sustainable employment and economic participation.

Policy Recommendations

• Interventions and Assistance: The development community should focus on targeted interventions to improve access to education, health, and employment for refugees.
• Resources: Adequate financial resources are necessary to support refugee-related initiatives, including the use of concessional financing and increased public investment.
• Burden-Sharing: There is a need for more equitable burden-sharing among host and donor countries, with a focus on long-term commitments and cooperation.
• Data and Monitoring: Better data collection and monitoring systems are essential to track the progress of refugee integration and development efforts.

Conclusion

The refugee crisis in the MENA region presents significant development challenges that require coordinated, long-term policy responses. The region's economic performance is closely tied to the oil market, which remains volatile and has a lasting impact on growth and employment. Addressing the needs of refugees is not only a humanitarian issue but also a development imperative, as it affects both the host and origin countries. The World Bank emphasizes the importance of integrating refugees into local economies and ensuring that development policies are inclusive and sustainable.