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TURKEY UPDATE Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the U.S.-Turkey relationship in May 2013, focusing on the visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the White House. It highlights the evolving dynamics between the two leaders, their shared goals, and the key areas of divergence in their foreign policy approaches.

Main Points

U.S.-Turkey Relations

• Erdogan's Visit: Erdogan's first visit to the White House since 2009 was a significant diplomatic event, reflecting the enhanced stature of Turkey in the international community.
• Model Partnership: Obama and Erdogan have developed a close relationship, characterized as a "model partnership," which includes frequent communication and mutual respect.
• Armenian Genocide Issue: Obama avoided using the term "genocide" in 2009 despite prior commitments, a move that Erdogan did not publicly challenge.
• Strategic Alignment: The U.S. and Turkey have aligned on the need to support stability in the Middle East, particularly through the lens of the Arab Spring.

Syria Crisis

• Common Goal: Both leaders share the objective of ending the Assad regime, but they differ on the methods.
• Turkish Stance: Turkey is hosting over 400,000 Syrian refugees and is increasingly frustrated with the U.S. reluctance to provide military or diplomatic support.
• Erdogan's Request: Erdogan seeks U.S. support for a safe zone in Syria and evidence of chemical weapon use by the Assad regime to justify greater involvement.
• U.S. Concerns: Obama is wary of Islamist radicals in the opposition and avoids open-ended military engagements, favoring a negotiated settlement with Russia.

Iraq and Kurdish Energy

• Iraqi Stability: Both leaders agree on the need for stability in Iraq, but they differ on the approach.
• Erdogan's Position: Erdogan criticizes Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's sectarian policies and has formed closer ties with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG).
• Bilateral Deal: Turkey and the KRG have finalized a deal to transport northern Iraqi oil and gas through Turkey, which the U.S. has not fully endorsed.
• U.S. Opposition: The U.S. fears this deal may undermine Maliki and increase Iranian influence, which is a strategic concern.

Israel, Gaza and Hamas

• Diplomatic Tensions: Turkey's relations with Israel and Hamas are a key topic, especially due to Erdogan's controversial remarks on Zionism.
• Mavi Marmara Incident: The 2010 attack led to a U.S. diplomatic effort to mend relations, including a phone call between Erdogan and Netanyahu.
• Gaza Blockade: Turkey demands the complete lifting of the Gaza blockade, but the U.S. remains hesitant due to its stance on Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Iran and Sanctions

• Balancing Act: Turkey has maintained a nuanced relationship with Iran despite U.S. pressure.
• Sanctions: The U.S. advocates for sanctions to curb Iran's nuclear program, and Erdogan is expected to support this.
• Energy Trade: Turkey still imports a significant amount of oil and gas from Iran, and the U.S. is concerned about the impact of this trade on sanctions effectiveness.

Other Issues

• PKK and Kurdish Problem: Erdogan seeks U.S. support for his peace initiative with the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
• Free Trade Agreement: Turkey is concerned about the implications of the U.S.-EU FTA on its economy and will seek U.S. assurances.
• Cyprus Problem: The U.S. is expected to re-engage in Cyprus negotiations, especially with the discovery of gas reserves and a new Greek Cypriot president.

Key Information

• Diplomatic Significance: The visit underscores the strategic importance of Turkey in U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East.
• Domestic Implications: Erdogan's domestic agenda includes managing Kurdish issues, preparing for upcoming elections, and maintaining his party's political dominance.
• Regional Influence: Turkey's actions in Syria and Iraq reflect its ambition to expand its influence, which may conflict with U.S. interests.
• U.S. Policy Priorities: The Obama administration prioritizes multilateralism, avoiding direct military involvement and focusing on domestic nation-building.

Conclusion

The visit marks a new phase in U.S.-Turkey relations, characterized by both cooperation and underlying tensions. While the two leaders share common goals, differences in approach on Syria, Iraq, and the Kurdish issue may challenge their partnership. The success of the visit will largely depend on whether Erdogan can secure U.S. support for his policies in Syria and how the U.S. balances its strategic interests with Turkey's regional ambitions.