皮尤-2020年选举：选民参与度很高，但将近一半人预估投票有困难（英文）-2020.8-75页_1mb

Summary of Pew Research Center's 2020 Election Survey

Core Content

This report from Pew Research Center, released on August 13, 2020, provides insights into the attitudes and engagement of U.S. voters with the 2020 presidential election. It highlights voter enthusiasm, concerns about voting access due to the coronavirus pandemic, and the perceptions of the two main candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Main Findings

Voter Engagement

• A record number of voters (83%) believe it really matters who wins the presidency, the highest since Pew Research Center began tracking this in 2000.
• Voter interest in the 2020 campaign is similar to that in June 2016 and higher than in previous elections when an incumbent president was running.

Voting Difficulties

• Nearly half (49%) of registered voters expect to have difficulties voting in the upcoming election.
• This is a significant drop from 85% in 2018, indicating increased concerns related to the pandemic.
• Trump supporters are more likely than Biden supporters to believe voting will be easy (80% vs. 58%).

Candidate Preferences

• Biden has an overall advantage in voter support: 53% of registered voters support him compared to 45% for Trump.
• However, Trump has stronger support among his base, with 66% of his supporters expressing strong support, compared to 46% for Biden.

Certainty of Vote

• A large majority (86% of Biden supporters and 85% of Trump supporters) are certain to vote for their preferred candidate.
• Among strong supporters, 98% of Biden's and 99% of Trump's are certain to support their candidate.

Reasons for Support

• Biden supporters cite opposition to Trump as the main reason for their support (56%), while Trump supporters mention his leadership and performance as president (23%) and opposition to Biden (19%).
• Concerns about Biden's age and health are more common among his supporters (31%), while concerns about Trump's temperament (25%) are more prevalent among his supporters.

Reactions to Election Outcomes

• Voters are more likely to express negative emotions if Trump wins (57% negative vs. 42% positive) than if Biden wins.
• Biden supporters are more likely to express relief if he wins (77%) and anger if Trump wins (61%).
• Trump supporters are more likely to express relief (61%) than anger (37%) if Trump wins.

Demographic Divides

• Similar to 2016, there are significant demographic divides: Biden leads among women, Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters, while Trump leads among older and less-educated voters.
• Educational and racial gaps in support are particularly pronounced. For example, 64% of white voters with no college degree support Trump, while 61% of white voters with a four-year college degree or more support Biden.

Party Satisfaction

• Republican voters are more satisfied with the presidential candidates than Democratic voters (59% vs. 42%).
• This marks a return to a partisan gap in satisfaction, unlike in 2016, where there was no significant difference.

Perception of Candidates

• Only 8% of registered voters believe either Trump or Biden would make a good president, the lowest share since Pew Research Center began tracking this in 2000.
• Biden supporters are more likely to express certainty about their vote choice than Trump supporters who only moderately support him.

Key Information

• Survey Methodology: Pew Research Center conducted two national surveys: one online (11,001 adults, including 7,485 registered voters) and one by telephone (1,750 adults, including 1,455 registered voters).
• Data Sources: The surveys were conducted between July 27 and August 4, 2020, and included questions about voting preferences, concerns, and reactions to potential election outcomes.
• Historical Context: This survey shows a shift in voter sentiment compared to previous elections, especially in terms of voting difficulties and candidate perceptions.

Conclusion

The 2020 election is marked by high voter engagement and a strong belief in the importance of the outcome. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, the majority of voters remain committed to their preferred candidate. However, the election also reflects deep partisan and demographic divides, with concerns about the candidates' health, temperament, and policies playing a significant role in shaping voter attitudes.