2016年-普华永道全球_Emerging_Trends_in_Real_Estate®_The_global_outlook_for_2016_38页_1mb

Summary of Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

Core Content

The Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016 report provides an in-depth analysis of real estate investment and development trends across the United States, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It highlights how global economic uncertainty, technological advancements, and demographic shifts are reshaping the real estate landscape. The report also examines the evolving strategies of major real estate firms such as KKR, APG, and Starr International, as well as the broader implications of capital flows and risk management in the sector.

Main Trends and Key Insights

1. Global Capital Flows and Market Strategy

• Shift from Traditional Gateways to Secondary Markets:
  Investors are increasingly looking beyond the traditional "big six" US markets to secondary and tertiary cities that offer better growth opportunities. This shift reflects a more selective and granular approach to investing, with a focus on niche opportunities and value-add assets.

• Capital Flow Dynamics:
  The global real estate sector is experiencing a slowdown in capital inflows, particularly from Asia, due to economic uncertainty, geopolitical issues, and currency volatility. This has led to a more cautious and selective investment environment.

• Risk Management and Diversification:
  With increasing global volatility, pooling and sharing risks has become more important. Investors are becoming more data-savvy and are re-evaluating the risk-adjusted returns of real estate compared to other asset classes.

2. US Real Estate Outlook

• Market Conditions:
  The US real estate market has seen a reduction in leverage and a shift towards more active management. Investors are moving away from long-term commitments and are seeking shorter-term returns.

• Cap Rate and Yield Compression:
  The market has experienced yield compression, with cap rates at historically low levels. This has led to a re-pricing of real estate assets as the market adjusts to new economic realities.

• Investment Focus:
  KKR is focusing on value-add assets and alternative real estate sectors, such as self-storage, student housing, and telecoms-type assets, which are seen as more resilient in a volatile environment.

• Market Cycles and Opportunities:
  KKR believes the US cycle is nearing its end and is looking for assets that can stabilize quickly. They are also exploring opportunities in gateway markets as pricing has become more reasonable.

3. European Real Estate Outlook

• Positive Sentiment Despite Uncertainty:
  European real estate remains a popular destination for global capital, with many investors viewing it as a safe haven. However, there is growing concern about geopolitical instability, economic decline in China, and the impact of the UK's potential exit from the EU.

• Liquidity and Asset Availability:
  Increased liquidity has led to a shortage of prime assets, and there is a growing preference for core assets. However, alternative sectors such as healthcare, hotels, student housing, and data centres are gaining traction due to urbanisation and demographic trends.

• Investment Strategy:
  APG is focusing on logistics, residential, and retail sectors, particularly in China, South Korea, and Australia. They are also investing in operating companies that contribute to asset value, such as e-Shang and Value Retail.

• Currency and Regulatory Factors:
  Currency volatility has become a key factor in investment decisions, and regulatory changes in some Asian countries are encouraging sovereign and institutional investors to diversify into global real estate.

4. Asia Pacific Real Estate Outlook

• Bull Market and Tightening Yields:
  The bull market in Asian real estate has been ongoing for seven years, but tightening pricing and yields suggest the market may be approaching a cyclical peak.

• Investor Behavior:
  There is a growing preference for core assets, which are seen as more stable in a volatile market. However, the availability of core assets is limited, leading to increased competition and cap rate compression.

• Capital Sources and Market Dynamics:
  Institutional and sovereign wealth funds are driving investment in the region, especially from China, the Middle East, and Europe. This has led to a migration of capital out of Asia and into global real estate markets for diversification and higher returns.

• Long-Term Investment Trends:
  Investments in Asia are increasingly long-term, with a focus on platform or partnership-style investing and collaboration with local developers to maximise returns.

Key Figures and Data

• Figure 1: Prospects by Investment Category/Strategy, 2016

  • Core: 43%
  • Value-add: 32%
  • Opportunistic: 25%

• Figure 2: Influence on investment strategy over the next 3–5 years

  • Capital flows: 87%
  • Yield compression: 41%
  • Alternative assets: 41%

• Figure 3: Prospects by Investment Category/Strategy for 2016

  • Core: 43%
  • Value-add: 32%
  • Opportunistic: 25%

Quotes from Industry Leaders

• Hamid Moghadam (Prologis):

  "There is no amount of thinking we can do that will make us as smart as listening to our customers."

• Ralph Rosenberg (KKR):

  "I am much more excited about investing in this environment than I was six months ago."

• Patrick Kanters (APG):

  "We are interested in investing not just in the properties but also the related operating companies that create the value for those properties, and often create a brand value."

Conclusion

The Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016 report underscores a global shift in investment strategies, with a greater emphasis on selectivity, data-driven decision-making, and alternative sectors. The real estate industry is adapting to economic uncertainty, technological disruption, and demographic changes, and is positioning itself as a safe haven in a volatile global market. As the sector evolves, the focus is moving towards sustainable returns, risk management, and strategic diversification.