美联储-谁最容易受到国际冲击？估计美国不同人口群体进口价格敏感性的差异（英）-2023.9-40页_1mb

This paper examines how international price shocks affect import price sensitivity across diverse U.S. demographic groups, using detailed expenditure and import data to construct group-specific price indexes. The study finds substantial variation in exposure to these shocks, with Black consumers and college graduates experiencing significantly higher import price inflation compared to other groups, such as high school dropouts and rural consumers. These disparities are driven by differing sensitivities to changes in the dollar's exchange value and foreign producer price inflation. For instance, dollar depreciation has a minimal effect on Black consumers but reduces import prices for White consumers by up to 9%. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these sensitivities exacerbated inflation differences, implying notable variations in total CPI inflation across groups. The methodology employs microdata from surveys and import transactions, coupled with a nested CES demand system, to estimate pass-through effects and decompose inflation variance. Overall, the paper highlights that international shocks contribute significantly to inflation inequality, presenting new insights for monetary policy distributional effects.

Key Findings:

• Demographic Groups Affected: Black consumers and college graduates faced higher import price inflation (3.14% annual avg), while groups like high school dropouts (0.63%) and rural consumers (1.46%) experienced lower rates.
• Sensitivity to Shocks: Dollar appreciation pass-through is higher for high school dropouts (-0.70) but near zero for Black consumers (0.06). Foreign inflation pass-through is severe for Black consumers (0.87) and younger consumers (0.71).
• Variance Explained: The dollar and foreign PPI changes account for 80% of the variance in import price inflation rates.
• Policy Relevance: These findings underscore that international factors disproportionately impact certain groups, affecting overall inflation and potentially distributional outcomes of monetary policy.