战略与国际研究中心-Ukraine-English-Version_43页_961kb

Ukraine: A Net Assessment of 16 Years of Independence

Core Content

This report, prepared for the U.S.-EU Partnership Committee for Ukraine, provides a comprehensive analysis of Ukraine's progress and challenges since regaining independence in 1991. It outlines key achievements, shortcomings, and recommendations for Ukraine, the European Union, and the United States to support Ukraine's continued transformation into a stable, democratic, and prosperous European state.

Main Points

Ukraine's Achievements

1. Establishment of Statehood and National Identity

   • Ukraine successfully became a sovereign, independent, and internationally recognized state after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
   • A majority of the population supported independence in the 1991 referendum.
   • National and state identity has grown stronger across the country, with even eastern regions increasingly identifying as Ukrainian, despite historical ties to Russia.
   • The treatment of minority religions has been positive, with Ukrainian authorities allowing free practice and open emigration, leading to the U.S. Congress removing Ukraine from the Jackson-Vanik Amendment in 2006.

2. Development of Democratic Institutions

   • Ukraine has made significant progress in building democratic institutions and practices.
   • It achieved a "free" rating in the Freedom House survey in 2005, 2006, and 2007, becoming one of the few post-Soviet states to do so.
   • Free and fair elections have become the norm, with the 2004 Orange Revolution marking a turning point in political reform.
   • The media has become more balanced and professional, especially after the Orange Revolution, and enjoys a relatively open environment.
   • Civil society and NGOs have flourished, playing a crucial role in supporting political change.

3. Economic Reforms and Market Development

   • Ukraine has transitioned from a centrally planned economy to a market-based system.
   • Markets now allocate and set prices for most goods and services.
   • The country has developed a stable national currency, the hryvnia, and a competent central bank.
   • Privatization has led to the private sector generating an estimated 65% of GDP, up from 10% in 1991 and 55% in 1999.
   • Ukraine has opened its borders and integrated into international trade, contributing to economic growth.

4. International Relations

   • Ukraine has built a strong relationship with the United States and a distinctive partnership with NATO.
   • It has deepened its engagement with the European Union and has a clear trajectory toward European integration.
   • Despite tensions with Russia, Ukraine has made progress in establishing a normal state-to-state relationship with its eastern neighbor.

Ukraine's Shortcomings and Setbacks

• Political Challenges:

  • Lack of political compromise and persistent corruption hinder democratic development.
  • No widely accepted constitutional framework exists, leading to governance issues.
  • Political fragmentation and shifting alliances have made governance difficult.

• Economic Challenges:

  • Government intervention in markets, oligarchic interests, and inconsistent legislation have slowed economic progress.
  • The energy sector remains a major challenge, with high levels of corruption, inefficiency, and dependence on Russia for energy supplies.
  • Ukraine's energy sector is vulnerable to Russian influence, and its reliance on Russian gas and oil creates political and economic risks.

• Foreign Policy Challenges:

  • While Ukraine is increasingly pro-European, there is no unified view on its future relationship with NATO.
  • Relations with Russia remain complex and multifaceted, influenced by historical and cultural ties.
  • The country faces difficulties in negotiating energy contracts and reducing dependence on Russia.

Key Tasks and Recommendations

For Ukraine

• Constitutional Reform: Clarify constitutional ambiguities and delineate authority.

• Judicial Reform: Establish a fair and independent judiciary to combat corruption.

• Administrative Reform: Create a modern bureaucracy and ensure local officials are directly accountable to citizens.

• Economic Reforms:

  • Abolish the outdated commercial code.
  • Facilitate the free sale and transfer of agricultural land.
  • Implement a modern tax code to simplify the tax burden.

• Energy Sector Reform:

  • Set market prices for energy and ensure fair treatment of domestic and foreign suppliers.
  • Restructure Naftogaz Ukraine to separate production, pipelines, and distribution.
  • Negotiate direct gas contracts with Gazprom and reduce reliance on intermediaries.
  • Reduce taxes on energy exploration and development.
  • Restart privatization of remaining energy assets.
  • Implement the European Energy Charter transit protocol and sign the Athens Energy Treaty to attract foreign investment.

• Foreign Policy:

  • Complete WTO accession.
  • Pursue an enhanced EU-Ukraine agreement and a free trade agreement.
  • Promote public awareness of NATO and strengthen transatlantic ties.
  • Actively participate in regional initiatives such as Black Sea Synergy and SECI.
  • Maintain stable relations with Russia while pursuing European integration.

For the European Union

• Travel and Visa Policies: Expand travel opportunities for Ukrainians through exchange programs and visa facilitation.
• Energy Assistance: Provide technical support to help Ukraine reform its energy sector and develop a long-term strategy.
• EU-Ukraine Agreement: Negotiate an enhanced agreement that includes a rapid free trade agreement and encourages adoption of European standards.
• Integration Signals: Send a clear message about Ukraine's potential EU membership to encourage reform.
• Neighborhood Policy and CFSP: Enhance Ukraine's participation in the EU's European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).

For the United States

• High-Level Engagement: Resume active diplomatic engagement at the presidential and cabinet levels.
• Travel and Exchange Programs: Expand opportunities for Ukrainian citizens to travel and engage with the U.S.
• Transatlantic Dialogue: Continue dialogue with the EU and NATO on strengthening Ukraine's ties to Europe and the Euro-Atlantic community.
• Free Trade Agreement: Consider a bilateral free trade agreement with Ukraine.
• Energy Strategy Support: Encourage the World Bank and International Energy Agency to assist Ukraine in developing a long-term energy strategy.
• Support for Direct Energy Contracts: Help Ukraine negotiate direct gas contracts with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
• NATO Engagement: Support NATO in enhancing its relationship with Ukraine, including the extension of a Membership Action Plan (MAP).

Conclusion

Ukraine has made substantial progress in its 16 years of independence, but significant challenges remain. The U.S. and EU must continue to support Ukraine's reform and integration efforts, while Ukraine itself must address political, economic, and energy-related issues to solidify its position as a modern, democratic, and stable European state. This report serves as a guide for future policy and development directions.