2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Armenia_Selected_Issues_Paper_27页_596kb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Armenia

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of dedollarization policies and fiscal multipliers in Armenia, based on IMF staff research conducted in December 2014. It outlines the current state of financial dollarization, the measures taken to reduce it, and the potential for further dedollarization. Additionally, it explores the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activity, focusing on the size and impact of fiscal multipliers.

Main Points on Dedollarization

A. Dollarization in Armenia: Stylized Facts

• Historically high financial dollarization in Armenia has fluctuated over time, peaking at over 80% in the early 2000s and declining to below 40% in 2007–08.
• In the third quarter of 2014, dollarization of deposits and private sector credit was around 60%, slightly below historical averages.
• Dollarization is closely tied to exchange rate developments, not inflation. During periods of dram appreciation, dram deposits grew faster than dollar deposits.
• Demand deposits have also been highly dollarized, with around 45% of demand deposits in foreign currency in Q3 2014.
• Inflation has generally been low (single-digit) since 1999, and has not exceeded 12% in that period.

B. Dedollarization Policies

• Armenia has a broad hedollarization strategy that includes macroeconomic stabilization, prudential regulations, and supervisory measures.
• Key macroeconomic achievements include reducing inflation and fiscal deficit, and narrowing the current account deficit.
• Prudential measures include:
  • Differential reserve requirements (RRs): 2% for dram liabilities and 12% for dollar liabilities.
  • Currency denomination of RRs: All RRs must be denominated in dram.
  • Higher risk weights for foreign currency loans.
  • Minimum liquidity ratios for FX liabilities.
  • Improved monitoring of currency mismatches.
• Forced dedollarization measures include:
  • Prohibition of consumer loans in foreign currency.
  • Prices and payments for goods, services, wages, and investments must be made in dram.
  • Exceptions exist for non-cash transactions and certain legal entities.

C. Impact of Dedollarization Measures

• Dollarization is persistent, and its reduction occurs gradually.
• Macroeconomic improvements, such as lower inflation and reduced fiscal deficit, have contributed to the decline in deposit dollarization from 73% in 2009 to 58% in 2014.
• Prudential measures have had some effect on interest rate spreads, but their impact on credit dollarization has been limited.
• Lending-deposit spreads (dram minus FX) have remained relatively stable, suggesting that prudential policies may not have significantly altered the behavior of financial institutions.

D. Scope for Additional Dedollarization Policies

• While Armenia's strategy is comprehensive, there is room for further action in specific areas:
  • Reducing inflation volatility to enhance the credibility of the inflation targeting regime.
  • Increasing FX liquidity requirements to address potential vulnerabilities and reduce the profitability of FX assets.
  • Continuing monitoring of currency mismatches and ensuring that banks internalize the risks associated with FX lending.
  • Strengthening the use of templates to assess currency mismatches in large borrowers.
• International experience suggests that successful dedollarization requires:
  • Macro stability and consistent monetary and fiscal policies.
  • Institutional reforms such as central bank independence.
  • Inflation-indexed instruments and high real interest rates as alternatives to FX assets.
  • Favorable economic conditions to avoid capital outflows triggered by dedollarization policies.

Key Information on Fiscal Multipliers

• Fiscal multipliers are critical in assessing the impact of government spending and taxation on economic output.
• The paper estimates fiscal multipliers using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, suggesting relatively high values, especially for capital spending.
• Fiscal policy in Armenia is aimed at stimulating growth through increased capital and social spending, supported by higher tax revenues.
• However, government expenditure has been below budget targets in recent years, largely due to delays in infrastructure projects.
• Tax ratios are relatively low, prompting a focus on revenue enhancement and spending composition improvement in the new IMF program.
• Fiscal multipliers vary depending on:
  • The type of fiscal variable (tax or expenditure).
  • The time horizon (on impact, peak, or at horizon T).
  • Economic conditions, such as the stance of monetary policy, the marginal propensity to consume and import, and the share of liquidity-constrained households.
• In advanced economies, the first-year spending multiplier averages about 0.8, while the revenue multiplier is about 0.3.
• In emerging markets and low-income countries, multipliers tend to be lower, possibly due to higher openness and import leakages.

Challenges and Considerations

• Reverse causation makes it difficult to estimate fiscal multipliers accurately, as government spending is often procyclical.
• The long-term impact of fiscal policy on growth is gaining attention, especially in light of hysteresis effects in depressed economies.
• Consistency and long-term implementation of sound policies are essential for rebuilding confidence in the domestic currency and achieving successful dedollarization.

Conclusion

Armenia has made progress in reducing financial dollarization through a comprehensive strategy that combines macroeconomic stabilization, prudential regulation, and supervisory measures. However, dollarization remains persistent, and further reductions are expected to be gradual. The fiscal multiplier analysis highlights the potential for government spending to drive growth, but revenue collection and spending efficiency are critical for sustaining macroeconomic stability. The paper concludes that while dedollarization and fiscal policy are important, institutional reforms and policy consistency are key to achieving lasting results.