巴黎银行-欧洲-宏观策略-为第二季度对欧洲收益的影响做好准备-20190723-10页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Document: "Brace for Q2 Impact on European Earnings"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the impact of the global economic slowdown and trade tensions on European earnings, particularly in the second quarter of 2019. It highlights the differences in performance between European and US markets, and identifies key sectors and countries that have been most affected.

Key Messages

Earnings Forecasts: European 2019 EPS forecasts have been more severely impacted by the global economic slowdown and trade tensions compared to the US, due to Europe's greater cyclicality.
Aggregate Growth: The STOXX Europe index is expected to show a 3% y/y EPS growth in 2019, while the broader Euro STOXX index forecasts 5% growth.
Sector Impact: Profit momentum has eroded the most in Industrials, Chemicals, and Banks.
Regional Impact: Germany has been the hardest hit region in Europe, due to its reliance on cyclical sectors like autos and chemicals.
Earnings Recovery: A weaker euro and a recovery in the Eurozone composite PMI could lead to more resilient earnings in the future, although these effects tend to lag.
Results Season: The 21-26 July results season will focus on Chemicals and Semiconductors.

Trade Ideas

Investment Strategy: Investors may consider going long on the EU High ROCE basket (<BNPPEHR1 Index>) relative to the SX5E index.
Risk Note: The risk of entering this relative value trade is theoretically unlimited.

Earnings Trends

YTD Earnings Downgrades: Since the beginning of 2019, the STOXX Europe index has seen a cumulative earnings downgrade of nearly 3% for Q2 2019e EPS, while the US S&P 500 has seen a more modest 1.8% hit.
2019 EPS Growth: The Euro STOXX index is forecasted to have just 3.4% y/y EPS growth for 2019, suggesting the possibility of an earnings recession.
Low Growth Outlook: 2019 is expected to be another year of low single-digit sales and earnings growth for European stocks.
Total Return Potential: If the P/E multiple remains stable, a 5% EPS growth could support a total return of close to 9% (including dividends).
Country-Level Impact: Germany has suffered the most in terms of earnings downgrades, while the UK has held up better.

Sector Analysis

Sector	Ticker	Performance (YtD, %)	FY19 Earnings Rev. (3m)	FY19 EPS y/y Growth	ROE (NTM)	5Y %-ile Rank	PE (NTM)	4W Change in PE (%)	5Y %-ile Rank	Dividend Yield (NTM)
Banks	SX7P	1.9	-4%	6%	9.3	83%	16.6	0.2	29%	2.7
Oil & Gas	SXEP	7.4	-2%	16%	10.8	75%	11.4	0.4	10%	5.0
Telcos	SXKP	-3.9	-6%	11%	5.9	80%	13.3	-2.0	1%	5.6
Basic Res.	SXPP	15.1	-1%	1%	11.2	57%	10.1	-0.2	10%	5.6
Autos	SXAP	9.2	-2%	11%	11.9	0%	6.9	4.3	10%	4.7
Indust.	SXNP	19.2	-2%	11%	17.8	38%	16.6	0.2	27%	2.7
Health.	SXDP	14.8	1%	10%	23.9	51%	16.8	0.7	48%	2.8
Utilities	SX6P	12.7	-1%	10%	10.9	95%	14.5	-0.7	5%	4.2
Food & Beverages	SX3P	26.3	2%	8%	21.1	99%	21.4	-0.4	56%	2.3
Insurance	SXIP	17.7	-1%	7%	13.9	100%	10.7	1.9	32%	5.2
Tech.	SX8P	23.9	-1%	19%	12.9	59%	20.5	2.1	32%	1.6

Regional Analysis

Country	Ticker	Performance (YtD, %)	FY19 Earnings Rev. (YtD, %)	FY19 EPS y/y Growth	ROE (NTM)	5Y %-ile Rank	PE (NTM)	4W Change in PE (%)	5Y %-ile Rank	Dividend Yield (NTM)
France	MXFR	16.5	-1%	11%	9.9	79%	14.2	1.3	13%	3.3
Germany	MXDE	10.7	-4%	13%	9.6	89%	12.7	3.3	15%	3.3
Italy	MXIT	17.2	-2%	7%	8.7	86%	10.3	1.9	9%	4.9
Spain	MXES	8.4	-2%	8%	8.7	75%	11.4	0.0	5%	4.7
Switzerland	MXCH	19.4	-2%	10%	14.4	35%	17.0	1.0	42%	3.1
UK	MXGB	11.0	0%	7%	10.2	84%	12.5	0.0	5%	4.8
Sweden	MXSE	14.2	-1%	-7%	13.9	95%	14.1	-8.8	4%	4.2

Key Insights

Cyclical Sectors: Industrials, Chemicals, and Banks have seen the most significant earnings downgrades.
Eurozone PMI: The recovery in the Eurozone composite PMI suggests potential improvement in earnings trends over the next 1-2 quarters.
Euro Weakening: A weaker euro is expected to support EPS growth over time.
UK Performance: The UK has shown resilience in earnings forecasts, partly due to its overseas earnings and lower exposure to cyclical sectors.
Switzerland Vulnerability: Despite strong performance, Switzerland's market is vulnerable due to its exposure to cyclical industries and a weaker Swiss Franc.

Conclusion

The document outlines a challenging earnings environment for European stocks in 2019, driven by global economic slowdown and trade tensions. While there are signs of potential recovery through a weaker euro and improving PMIs, the current outlook remains cautious. Investors are advised to focus on the Chemicals and Semiconductors sectors during the upcoming results season, and consider long positions in the EU High ROCE basket relative to the SX5E index. However, the risks associated with such trades are significant and should be carefully evaluated.

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