20231116-招银国际-汇量科技-01860.HK-Margin_intact_with_topline_acceleration_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Report Summary: Mobvista Inc. (1860 HK) - CMB International Analyst Coverage

Executive Summary

CMB International's report analyzes Mobvista Inc. (1860 HK) based on the 3Q23 financial results and forecasts. The analysis maintains a "BUY" rating with a revised target price, highlighting positive revenue trends and margin potential, while noting factors like segment performance and future risks.

Key Financial Highlights

Quarterly Performance

Revenue for Q3 2023 increased by 26% year-over-year, slightly below estimates at US$4.1 million adjusted net profit.
Segments show acceleration in Mintegral's revenue (28% YoY), driven by midcore and hardcore game revenue mix.
Gross profit margin remained stable at 20.6%, and adjusted net margin improved modestly from the previous quarter.

Financial Indicators

EBITDA: US$23.6 million in Q3 2023.
Revenue Growth: Total revenue is forecasted to reach US$1.487 billion by FY2025, with steady annual growth rates.
Profitability: Adjusted net profit is expected to reach US$40 million in FY2025, supported by stable margin expectations.

Segment Analysis

Revenue Trends

Mintegral segment experienced accelerated revenue growth to 28% YoY, with a shift to 32% midcore and hardcore games, despite ROAS feature ramp-up challenges.
ROAS intelligent bidding features are validated, but in-app purchase contributions are expected to take time.
Overall revenue mixture improved, but target price adjustments reflect reduced forecasts due to external factors.

Future Outlook and Forecasts

Margin and Earnings

Margins are expected to enhance in FY2024/2025, with an adjusted net margin forecast of 2.6% and 2.7%.
Earnings forecasted to remain largely unchanged, factoring in revenue mix shifts and efficiency gains.

Investment Recommendation

Rating: Maintain BUY.
Target Price: HK$6.00 per share (compared to previous HK$6.30).
Upside Potential: 90.5% upside from current price.

Valuation Metrics

Financial Projections

Price-to-earnings ratio (FY2024E): 19.6x.
Sales growth estimates indicate robust performance; comparable companies show alignment with valuation.
Segment-based valuation: Ad-tech business valued at 30x P/E FY2023E, mar-tech at 3x P/S FY2023E.

Notes on Risks and Disclosures

Analyst certification confirms independence and no conflicts of interest.
Forward-looking statements may result in actual outcomes differing due to market or internal factors.

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