2017年-世界发展银行全球_The_Gambia___Fragility_Risk_and_Resilience_Assessment_57页_1mb

The Gambia: Fragility Risk and Resilience Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report, prepared jointly by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the World Bank, provides an in-depth analysis of The Gambia's fragility risk and resilience in the context of its political, economic, and social dynamics. It outlines the key drivers of fragility, sources of resilience, and recommendations for external engagement to support the country's transition to democratic governance.

Main Drivers of Fragility

• Political Instability: The Gambia has experienced a long period of authoritarian rule under former President Yahya Jammeh, which has eroded public institutions and created a legacy of institutional dysfunction.
• Slow Growth and High Inequality: The economy has struggled with low GDP growth (estimated at 2.5% in 2016), limited employment opportunities, and significant income disparities.
• Unsustainable Fiscal Balances: Poor fiscal management has led to a fragile macroeconomic environment, increasing the country's vulnerability to external shocks.
• Limited Public Administration Capacity: The public sector suffers from low efficiency, lack of transparency, and endemic corruption, as evidenced by the CPIA score of 2.0 for Transparency, Accountability, and Corruption in the Public Sector.
• Structural Vulnerabilities and Exogenous Shocks: Environmental degradation, deforestation, desertification, and climate-related shocks have weakened the agricultural sector and exacerbated food insecurity.
• Regional Instability: The ongoing low-intensity conflict in Senegal's Casamance region poses a risk to The Gambia's stability, particularly in the Foni Kanilai region, which has historical ties to the Jammeh regime.

Sources of Resilience

• The Gambian Diaspora: A significant source of financial and political support, especially in the context of the 2016 election and the subsequent political transition.
• ECOWAS and Regional Partners: Regional institutions have played a proactive role in stabilizing the political situation and providing support during the transition.
• Women and Youth: These groups have emerged as key actors in organizing political responses and advocating for democratic reforms.
• Migration: Large-scale emigration has alleviated domestic pressures and contributed to social and economic stability, though it has also led to a loss of skilled labor.

External Assistance: Risks and Benefits

• Risks: External assistance in fragile contexts requires careful management to avoid dependency, misalignment with national priorities, and unintended consequences.
• Benefits: Strategic engagement can help restore public sector functionality, reinforce democratic institutions, and promote economic growth. However, it must be tailored to the country's unique circumstances and implemented with caution.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• Policy Support: The government should prioritize the restoration of macroeconomic stability, the acceleration of growth, and the maintenance of sustainable debt dynamics.
• Institutional Strengthening: Rebuilding credible and impartial political institutions, enhancing parliamentary rules and judicial systems, and promoting gender equity and social protection are essential.
• Public Administration Reform: A more transparent, efficient, and inclusive public administration is necessary to restore social cohesion and institutional integrity.
• Data and Monitoring: Establishing a statistical observatory to monitor fragility indicators and support evidence-based policymaking is recommended.
• Collaboration: Multi-stakeholder collaboration is crucial, including the creation of a fragility indicators database and a harmonized monitoring framework.
• Conflict Prevention: Integrating conflict prevention into social and economic policies, and promoting intercommunity dialogue, can help address underlying tensions and build resilience.

Key Information

• The Gambia is the smallest country in continental Sub-Saharan Africa, with a land area of 11,300 square kilometers and a single overland border with Senegal.
• Agriculture is the largest economic sector, but it is highly vulnerable due to inadequate irrigation and reliance on unpredictable rainfall.
• Tourism and remittances are the main sources of foreign exchange, with Europe being the primary market for tourism and a major recipient of remittances.
• The country's HDI is low, reflecting weak human development outcomes and high levels of poverty.
• The 2016 presidential election marked a significant political transition, with the new government of President Adama Barrow facing challenges in consolidating civilian control over the military and restoring public trust in institutions.
• The Gambia's diaspora is now the second-largest in Europe relative to its population, offering both challenges and opportunities for resilience.

Regional and International Context

• The Gambia has a complex relationship with Senegal, which has historically been a source of tension and instability.
• The country's recent legislative elections have tested the stability of the coalition government and raised concerns about the potential for institutional capture by political parties.
• The report emphasizes the need for a participatory approach to fragility analysis and policy engagement, leveraging the experience of development partners to support the country's transition.

Summary of Findings

The Gambia's fragility is rooted in a long history of authoritarian governance, weak public institutions, and limited administrative capacity. The political transition following the 2016 election has created both opportunities and risks. While the diaspora and regional institutions have played a critical role in supporting stability, the country's public sector remains under-resourced and ineffective. The government must focus on strengthening democratic institutions, improving public administration, and addressing environmental and social challenges to build resilience and ensure long-term stability. External assistance should be carefully targeted and aligned with national priorities to avoid reinforcing fragility.