【冯氏集团】亚洲采购报告：东南亚（2024年4月）_19页_753kb

Asia Sourcing Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive update on the sourcing outlook for Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand over the next 12 months, highlighting economic performance, trade trends, policy developments, and future growth opportunities.

Cambodia

Key Highlights

• Economic Growth: Cambodia's economy grew by 5.5% yoy in 2023 and is projected to grow by 6.4% yoy in 2024.
• Export Performance: The GFT sector (garments, footwear, travel goods) showed double-digit growth for seven consecutive months since August 2023, with 22.1% yoy growth in exports in January-February 2024.
• Major Markets: The US remained the largest export market (32.5% of total exports), followed by Vietnam, Japan, and China.
• Inflation: CPI increased by 2.72% yoy in December 2023.
• Exchange Rate: The USD to KHR rate appreciated by 0.39% year-to-date as of 29 Feb 2024.

Policy & Infrastructure

• The Cambodia-United Arab Emirates CEPA entered into force in January 2024, expected to more than double non-oil trade to US$1 billion by 2030.
• The Comprehensive Master Plan on the Cambodian Transit and Logistics System (2023-2033) outlines 174 priority projects across transport and logistics sectors, aiming to enhance the national transport network and logistics infrastructure.
• The government is also working on establishing new special economic zones (SEZs) focused on green technology, sustainable industries, and the digital sector.

FBIC's Take

• The GFT sector's back orders from American and European buyers are expected to continue into mid-2024.
• The master plan and new SEZs signal positive infrastructure and trade development.
• The CEPA is expected to accelerate investment in logistics, infrastructure, and renewable energy.

Indonesia

Key Highlights

• Economic Growth: Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.0% yoy in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a trade surplus of US$2.0 billion in January 2024.
• Export Trends: Exports declined by 8.1% yoy in January 2024, mainly due to declines in the processing and mining sectors.
• Inflation: CPI increased by 2.8% yoy in February 2024.
• Exchange Rate: USD to IDR depreciated by 1.8% year-to-date as of 29 Feb 2023.

Policy & Infrastructure

• Presidential Election: Prabowo Subianto, the new Defense Minister, is set to become the next president in October 2024, promising economic growth of 8% in five years and continuity of economic policies.
• CCS Collaboration: Indonesia and Singapore signed an LOI on cross-border CCS, with Indonesia allowing 30% of CCS storage capacity for imported CO2.
• FDI Trends: Net FDI fell by 6.6% yoy in 2023, but rebound is expected in 2024 due to easing monetary policies and a business-friendly environment.

FBIC's Take

• The trade surplus and positive export growth in January 2024 suggest a recovery in the export sector.
• The CCS initiative positions Indonesia as a regional hub for carbon storage.
• The presidential election result is viewed as positive for investors, with a focus on domestic supply chains and electric vehicle development.

The Philippines

Key Highlights

• Economic Growth: The Philippines' GDP grew by 5.6% yoy in 2023, slightly below the 6-7% target.
• Export Trends: Exports declined by 7.6% yoy in 2023, but increased by 9.1% yoy in January 2024.
• Major Markets: The US was the largest export market in January 2024, followed by Japan, Hong Kong SAR, China, and the Chinese Mainland.
• FDI Trends: Net FDI fell by 6.6% yoy in 2023, with Japan as the top source of investment.

Policy & Regulations

• The Tatak Pinoy Act was signed into law in February 2024, promoting local industries and Filipino products in government procurement.
• The PPP Code IRR was released in March 2024, aiming to streamline public-private partnerships and encourage domestic and foreign investments.

FBIC's Take

• The Philippines' export sector is expected to recover in 2024, supported by US economic recovery and new market expansion.
• The Tatak Pinoy Act is seen as a major boost for domestic branding and industry development.
• The PPP Code IRR is expected to reduce transaction costs and enhance ease of doing business.

Thailand

Key Highlights

• Economic Growth: Thailand's GDP grew by 1.7% yoy in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a slow but steady expansion.
• Export Trends: Exports declined by 1.0% yoy in 2023 but increased by 10.0% yoy in January 2024.
• Major Markets: The US was the largest export market (17.2% of total exports), followed by China, Japan, Singapore, and Australia.
• FDI Trends: FDI approved in 2023 reached US$16.3 billion, with the Chinese Mainland as the top investor.

Policy & Infrastructure

• The Thailand Vision 2030 was announced in February 2024, aiming to make Thailand a global industrial hub.
• The National AI Strategy and Action Plan (2024-2027) includes six flagship AI projects, with a budget of 1.5 billion baht (US$42 million).
• The Eastern Economic Corridor continues to be the main FDI destination, with over 50% of approved FDI located there.

FBIC's Take

• Thailand's export growth has rebounded, driven by global demand recovery and Chinese economic recovery.
• The AI strategy aims to develop a skilled workforce and boost AI potential in key industries.
• The Vision 2030 outlines strategic hubs in tourism, wellness, agriculture, aviation, logistics, automotive, digital economy, and finance, leveraging existing infrastructure and resources.

Summary of Key Trends

Conclusion

The region as a whole shows a positive or slightly positive sourcing outlook for the next 12 months, with Cambodia and Indonesia leading in economic and export growth, and the Philippines and Thailand focusing on policy reforms and infrastructure development. All countries are expanding trade agreements, improving logistics and transport systems, and promoting AI and green technology to drive sustainable economic growth and enhance competitiveness in global markets.