20151014-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_785kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the oil and gas market conditions in the Asia-Pacific region as of 13 October 2015, along with key news headlines and recent reports from Maybank Kim Eng. It highlights the performance of crude oil and gas prices, company valuations, and analyst ratings.
Oil & Gas Market Overview
- Crude Oil (Brent): Fell by 1.2% to USD49.24/b, reflecting concerns over market oversupply.
- Crude Oil (WTI): Declined by 0.9% to USD46.66/b, also affected by oversupply fears.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Dropped 6.1% to USD47.36/barrel, influenced by supply glut concerns.
- China Daqing Spot: Declined 6.4% to USD43.87/barrel, with a notable increase in September due to higher imports.
- Singapore Cracking Margin: Rebounded to USD3.46/barrel after 8 consecutive sessions of decline, driven by a rise in light distillate cracks.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price showed a decline, but was supported by lower crude prices.
Key News Headlines
- Oil prices pare early gains, close lower on oversupply concerns: The market remained cautious due to the IEA's warning of continued oversupply. Brent and WTI prices fell after initial gains.
- Sino delivers Linxing gas: Australia-listed Sino Gas & Energy started delivering gas from unconventional fields in Shanxi, China, with additional wells expected to come online.
- China Crude Imports Rebound: China's crude imports rose to 27.95 million metric tons in September, up from 26.59 million in August.
- IEA: 'Oversupply to persist': Global demand growth is expected to slow in 2016 due to the recovery of Iranian exports and waning price support.
- Singapore cracking margin rebounds: The margin improved due to a sudden uptick in light distillate cracks, following a period of decline.
Latest Reports
- Icon Offshore: Terminated a vessel order, with a SELL rating. Target price is MYR0.25.
- Perisai Petroleum: Proposed a 10% private placement to raise MYR40m for debt repayment. SELL rating with MYR0.22 target price.
- KNM Group: Secured a RE EPCC job in the UK with a BUY rating. Target price is MYR1.00.
Valuation Summary
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 13-Oct | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV (x) 2015E | Yield (%) 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 6.26 | 4.80 | 238.7 | 85.7 | 27.5 | 47.8 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Buy | 5.59 | 6.00 | 95.1 | 68.6 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| CNOCO LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 9.13 | 11.70 | 52.6 | 90.0 | 16.8 | 19.8 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| New Ocean Energy | 342 HK | Buy | 3.11 | 7.70 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 19.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 253.9 | NR | 33.4 | 18.5 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 893.6 | NR | 44.5 | 51.7 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 165.0 | 198.00 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 863.5 | NR | 9.6 | 23.0 | 19.9 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 15.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 770.9 | NR | 4.0 | 24.1 | 19.7 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | NR | 7.11 | NR | 1.4 | 0.5 | 15.4 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | NR | 3.51 | NR | 0.1 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 69,600 | NR | 330.1 | 1,201.2 | 20.6 | 19.0 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 112,500 | NR | 166.3 | 968.4 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 48,900 | NR | 67.9 | 545.2 | N/A | 58.1 | 9.2 | 7.0 | -0.4 | 1.4 | 5.3 |
| Shell | RDSA LN | NR | 1,779 | NR | 173.8 | 17,735 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 6.9 |
| BP plc | BP / LN | NR | 382.75 | NR | 106.9 | 21,707 | 17.7 | 15.5 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 6.8 |
| Gazprom | GAZP RX | NR | 141.80 | NR | 53.1 | 68.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 9.7 | 0.3 | 5.1 |
| Rosneft Oil | ROSNI LI | NR | 4.19 | NR | 44.4 | 23.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | N/A | N/A | 13.6 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| LUKOH LK | LKOH RX | NR | 2,350 | NR | 31.6 | 47.1 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 7.8 |
| PetroleoBrasileiro | PETR3 BZ | NR | 9.84 | NR | 30.5 | 48.3 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 5.3 |
| Total | FP FP | NR | 44.91 | NR | 123.4 | 355.1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 1.2 | 5.3 |
| Eni5.p.A. | ENI IM | NR | 15.44 | NR | 63.9 | 362.4 | 33.0 | 22.5 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 5.3 |
| Repsol S.A. | REP SM | NR | 12.06 | NR | 19.2 | 217.6 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 8.2 |
| Stateoil ASA | STL NO | NR | 137.10 | NR | 53.6 | 76.6 | 19.3 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.2 |
| OMV AG | OMV AV | NR | 24.61 | NR | 9.2 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 4.6 |
| GalpEnergy, SGPS, S.A. | GALP PL | NR | 9.75 | NR | 9.2 | 16.3 | 16.0 | 18.7 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 4.0 |
Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA)
- Jigar Shah (INDIA)
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA)
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA)
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES)
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE)
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND)
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen & Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM)
Conclusion
The oil and gas market in the Asia-Pacific region faced pressure due to oversupply concerns, with Brent and WTI prices declining. However, some refining margins showed recovery. The document also highlights specific company activities and their financial valuations, indicating a mix of buy, sell, and hold ratings. The focus on market conditions and company performance underscores the ongoing challenges and opportunities in the sector.
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