Eni-世界石油评论2020（英文）-2020.12-86页_20mb

World Oil Review 2020 Summary

Core Content and Key Information

The World Oil Review 2020 is a comprehensive report analyzing the global oil market, focusing on supply, demand, trade, and production quality. It outlines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy sector and emphasizes the importance of a "just transition" in the oil and gas industry. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, the industry continues to play a vital role in the global energy mix, with natural gas expected to remain a major energy source across various sectors.

The report highlights the following key points:

• Global Oil Demand: In 2019, global oil demand grew at a slower pace (0.8%) compared to the previous decade (1.4%). Non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, saw significant growth (5.3% and 2.8% respectively), while OECD countries, especially Europe, experienced a structural decline. U.S. demand remained almost flat.
• World Oil Production: In 2019, there was zero growth in global oil production, as OPEC+ production cuts offset U.S. production growth of 11%. The U.S. became a net oil exporter for the first time since 1947 in September 2019.
• OPEC+ Production Cuts: The OPEC+ group extended its production agreement, leading to a 5% decrease in OPEC supply compared to 2018. U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela further reduced OPEC production.
• Crude Oil Quality: There was a notable shift in crude oil quality in 2019, with a significant reduction in medium & sour crude supply, resulting in a lighter average barrel. This change affected price differentials, with medium heavy crudes experiencing higher relative prices.
• Refining Capacity Growth: Asia-Pacific led in refining capacity growth, accounting for nearly 90% of the 1.5 Mb/d increase compared to 2018.

Main Highlights

Oil Supply and Demand

• Global Oil Demand Growth: 0.8% in 2019, slower than the previous decade.
• Non-OECD Growth: China and India showed strong growth (5.3% and 2.8% respectively).
• OECD Decline: Europe experienced a structural decline, while U.S. demand was flat.
• World Oil Production: No growth in 2019, with U.S. production rising by 11%.
• OPEC+ Cuts: Extended production cuts led to a 5% reduction in OPEC supply.
• U.S. Net Exporter Status: Became a net oil exporter in September 2019.

Crude Oil Quality

• Crude Quality Shift: A significant reduction in medium & sour crude supply led to a lighter average produced barrel.
• Price Differentials: Medium heavy crude prices appreciated due to reduced supply.
• Crude Classification:
  • Ultra Light: API ≥ 50, Sulphur < 0.5%
  • Light & Sweet: API 35–50, Sulphur < 0.5%
  • Light & Sour: API 35–50, Sulphur 0.5–1%
  • Medium & Sweet: API 26–35, Sulphur < 0.5%
  • Medium & Sour: API 26–35, Sulphur 0.5–1%
  • Heavy & Sweet: API 10–26, Sulphur < 0.5%
  • Heavy & Sour: API 10–26, Sulphur ≥ 1%

Refining Industry

• Refining Capacity: The report includes data on refining capacity, primary capacity, and conversion capacity.
• Conversion Capacity (FCC Equivalent): This is calculated based on the type of conversion unit, with FCC equivalent being a standard measure (1), while other units may have different equivalent factors.
• Complexity Ratios:
  • FCC Equivalent Ratio: Measures the refinery's ability to produce high-quality products.
  • Nelson Complexity Index (NCI): Compares secondary conversion capacity to primary distillation capacity, indicating the refinery's complexity and product value potential.
• Conversion Unit Equivalent Factors:
  • Alkylation: 0.00 (FCC), 10.00 (NCI)
  • Coking: 1.35 (FCC), 6.00 (NCI)
  • Hydrocracking: 1.30 (FCC), 6.00 (NCI)
  • FCC Equivalent: 1.00 (FCC), 6.00 (NCI)
  • Other Units: Factors vary based on conversion type.

Key Data Tables and Figures

• World Oil Reserves (2019): 1,712,592 million barrels as of 31st December.

• Reserves Growth (2000–2019): Total increase of 478,858 million barrels.

• Top 10 Reserves Holders (2019):

  • Venezuela: 303,806 million barrels (no change from 2018)
  • Saudi Arabia: 258,600 million barrels (-3.2% from 2018)
  • Iran: 208,600 million barrels (+34.1% from 2018)
  • Canada: 169,692 million barrels (-0.6% from 2018)
  • Iraq: 145,019 million barrels (no change from 2018)
  • Kuwait: 101,500 million barrels (no change from 2018)
  • United Arab Emirates: 97,800 million barrels (no change from 2018)
  • Russia: 80,000 million barrels (no change from 2018)
  • United States: 54,581 million barrels (+16.0% from 2018)
  • Rest of the World: 244,631 million barrels (-0.6% from 2018)

• Reserves/Production Ratio:

  • Europe: 15,379 million barrels (–0.6% growth in 2019)
  • Russia and Central Asia: 118,301 million barrels (no change in 2019)
  • Middle East: 847,775 million barrels (+5.5% growth in 2019)
  • Africa: 119,451 million barrels (–0.4% growth in 2019)
  • Asia-Pacific: 49,671 million barrels (+0.3% growth in 2019)
  • Americas: 562,015 million barrels (+1.0% growth in 2019)
  • North America: 224,273 million barrels (+3.0% growth in 2019)
  • Central South America: 337,741 million barrels (–0.3% growth in 2019)
  • World: 1,712,592 million barrels (+3.0% growth in 2019)

Conclusion

The World Oil Review 2020 provides a detailed overview of the oil industry's dynamics, highlighting the impact of the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and market shifts on supply and demand. It emphasizes the importance of crude oil quality and refining capacity, noting the significant Asia-Pacific growth in refining capacity and the U.S. shift to net exporter status. The report also underscores the role of OPEC+ production cuts and the transition to cleaner energy sources, reinforcing the need for the industry to adapt and contribute to a sustainable energy future.