2010年-ECB欧洲央行_Recent_housing_market_developments_in_the_euro_area_5页_248kb

Box 4: Recent Housing Market Developments in the Euro Area

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the recent housing market developments in the Euro area, focusing on property prices, affordability, and housing supply and demand dynamics. It highlights the cyclical nature of housing prices over the past decade, with a notable decline in 2009 followed by a gradual recovery in early 2010. The analysis also discusses the heterogeneity of housing market performance across different countries and the factors influencing demand and supply.

Key Observations

• Residential Property Prices:

  • Euro area house prices increased by 0.3% in Q1 2010 and 1.8% in Q2 2010 year-on-year.
  • In 2009, there was a yearly contraction of nearly 3%.
  • The price increases in early 2010 were primarily driven by large urban areas such as Brussels, Paris, and Helsinki.
  • Some countries (Ireland, Greece, Spain, Netherlands, Slovakia, and Estonia) continued to experience declining house prices in Q2 2010.

• Quarterly Index:

  • The Eurosystem began compiling a quarterly residential property price indicator in 2010.
  • Quarterly data for Germany and Italy are not published due to high statistical uncertainty, but are used in the euro area aggregate.
  • The index is based on national data and has a high level of uncertainty in terms of coverage, quality adjustment, and representativeness.

• Price Dispersion:

  • The dispersion of house price changes across the Euro area has remained elevated since 2007.
  • The interquartile range (where 50% of the distribution is concentrated) indicates a persistent cross-country heterogeneity in price developments.
  • The house price-to-rent ratio in the Euro area and several countries remains somewhat elevated compared to its level a decade ago, though it has abated in 2009 and stabilized in early 2010.

• Housing Affordability:

  • The "crude" affordability measure (household disposable income to house price ratio) has increased since 2007, despite a slight decline in Q1–Q2 2010.
  • It remains 10% lower than in 1999.
  • Improved borrowing conditions, including lower interest rates, contributed to better demand conditions.
  • Credit standards for housing loans showed no net tightening in Q3 2010, compared to 10% tightening in Q1–Q2 2010.
  • The annual growth rate of loans for house purchase increased from -0.6% in September 2009 to 3.6% in October 2010, though this is much more subdued than the peak of the previous cycle (over 12% in mid-2006).

• Housing Supply:

  • Real housing investment continued to contract, reaching -4% in Q2 2010, compared to -12% in Q1 2009.
  • Construction production indicators for Q3 2010 suggest weak prospects for residential investment, but building permits indicate tentative improvements.

Main Viewpoints

• The housing market in the Euro area has shown a cyclical pattern, with strong price increases before 2006, a sharp decline in 2009, and a gradual recovery in early 2010.
• The recovery in 2010 was not uniform across all Euro area countries, with some experiencing price increases while others continued to see declines.
• The housing price-to-rent ratio remains relatively high, indicating potential overvaluation, but this is not a definitive overvaluation measure due to the lack of long-term data.
• Housing affordability has improved since 2007, though it is still lower than in 1999.
• Housing demand has been supported by improved borrowing conditions and a stabilization in credit standards.
• Housing supply remains constrained, with continued contraction in real investment and significant regional disparities.

Conclusion

While the contraction in nominal house prices in the Euro area ended in early 2010, housing activity and price increases are expected to remain more moderate than pre-2009 levels. This is due to the need for continued adjustment in some countries to correct for past excesses. The Euro area housing market is thus characterized by divergent regional trends, improved affordability, and weak investment prospects, with the potential for gradual recovery in the future.