美国农业部-美股-农业行业-糖和甜味剂展望：预期美国糖产量将在2020-21年提高-20200716-15页_114kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and Mexico sugar production, use, and trade for the 2019/20 and 2020/21 crop years. It highlights changes in supply and demand dynamics influenced by weather conditions, policy changes, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

Production

• Total Sugar Production for 2020/21: Increased to 13.921 million STRV, up 187,000 STRV from the June forecast.
• Beet Sugar: Projected at 5.000 million STRV, a 35,000 STRV increase from the previous month.
• Cane Sugar: Projected at 4.090 million STRV, up 50,000 STRV from June forecast.
• Key States:
  • Louisiana: Increased cane sugar production to 1.850 million STRV.
  • Florida: Remained stable at 2.105 million STRV.
  • Texas: Increased to 135,000 STRV.
• Harvested Area: Increased by 1.4% compared to the previous year, with most of the increase in Minnesota, Michigan, and Nebraska.

Use

• Domestic Deliveries for 2020/21: Projected at 12.230 million STRV, up 0.6% from 2019/20.
• Food and Beverage Use: Expected to be 12.125 million STRV, reflecting a slight annual increase.
• Nonreporter Deliveries: Increased by 54.4% year-over-year due to higher imports and direct consumption.

Imports

• Total Imports for 2020/21: Projected at 3.059 million STRV, a 38,000 STRV decrease from the previous month.
• Mexico Imports: Reduced by 223,000 STRV due to the U.S. Needs and Export Limit calculation.
• Quota Imports: Increased by 185,000 STRV, reflecting USMCA provisions.
• High-Duty Imports: Remained at 230,000 STRV, with some sugar in bonded warehouses.

Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Ratio

• Ending Stocks for 2020/21: Estimated at 1.656 million STRV, a 15.1% decrease from 2019/20.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Estimated at 13.5% for 2020/21, down from 14.5% in 2019/20.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

Production

• 2019/20 Production: Estimated at 5.282 million MT, up 52,000 MT from the previous month.
• 2020/21 Production: Projected at 6.100 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
• Harvest Impact: The 2019/20 crop was affected by severe drought, but late season harvests showed improved yields.

Use

• Domestic Deliveries for 2019/20: Estimated at 4.378 million MT, a 44,000 MT decrease from the previous month.
• Domestic Deliveries for 2020/21: Projected at 4.458 million MT, a 117,000 MT decrease from the previous month.
• Human Consumption: Estimated at 4.073 million MT for 2020/21, a 0.1% decline from 2019/20.
• High-Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS): Delivered at 1.470 million MT, down 23,000 MT due to lower demand and unfavorable exchange rates.

Exports

• Exports for 2019/20: Estimated at 1.233 million MT, up 120,000 MT from June forecast.
• Exports to the U.S.: Increased to 1.194 million STRV.
• Exports to Other Countries: Raised to 808,000 MT, up 308,000 MT from the previous month.

Stocks

• Ending Stocks for 2020/21: Projected at 929,000 MT, a 24,000 MT decrease from the previous year.
• Stocks-to-Human Consumption Ratio: Estimated at 22.8% for 2020/21.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratio: Estimated at 15.0% for 2020/21.

Key Information

• U.S. Sugar Supply: Increased due to higher production and beginning stocks, with a slight decrease in imports.
• Mexico Sugar Supply: Increased in 2019/20 due to late season harvests, with 2020/21 production expected to return to normal levels.
• Impact of Weather: Severe drought in 2019 reduced Mexico's sugarcane yields, while 2020/21 is expected to see improved conditions.
• Impact of Pandemic: The pandemic has shifted U.S. and Mexican consumption patterns, with increased at-home consumption and reduced deliveries to certain export programs.
• Trade Policy: The USMCA has increased market access for sugar imports from Canada, affecting import volumes and quotas.
• Supply Chain Dynamics: The U.S. is expected to increase sugar exports to Mexico, while Mexico's exports to the U.S. are projected to decrease slightly in 2020/21.

Summary of Trends

Category	2019/20	2020/21	Trend
U.S. Sugar Production	13.921 MSTRV	13.921 MSTRV	Slight increase
Mexico Sugar Production	5.282 MMT	6.100 MMT	Return to normal
U.S. Sugar Imports	4.178 MSTRV	3.059 MSTRV	Decrease
Mexico Sugar Exports	1.233 MMT	1.731 MMT	Increase
U.S. Domestic Deliveries	12.155 MSTRV	12.230 MSTRV	Slight increase
Mexico Domestic Deliveries	4.378 MMT	4.458 MMT	Slight increase
U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratio	14.54%	13.50%	Decrease
Mexico Stocks-to-Use Ratio	16.6%	15.0%	Decrease

Key Figures and Tables

• Table 1: U.S. sugar supply and use by fiscal year.
• Table 2: Beet sugar production projection calculation.
• Table 3: Sugarbeet planted area by state.
• Table 4: Sugarbeet harvested area by state.
• Table 5: Sugarcane harvested area by state.
• Table 6: Food and beverage deliveries by source.
• Figure 1: U.S. and world refined sugar prices.
• Figure 2: Mexican sweetener consumption.