20230914-建信期货-贵金属日评_5页_2mb

报告摘要

Date: 2023年9月14日

This report analyzes the precious metal market, focusing on gold and silver, based on key macroeconomic factors and upcoming events.

Daily View on Precious Metals:

Crude oil prices are expected to rise due to OPEC's optimistic outlook on global oil demand, which may increase the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations and pressure precious metals higher, though resistance comes from potential U.S. CPI data release. Domestic gold is supported by a tight supply situation in China, with Shanghai gold trading at a 17-yuan/gram premium to New York gold.
Short-term gold prices may oscillate below 1950 dollars/ounce amid concerns over U.S. economic slowdown and inflation data. The Federal Reserve's policy rate expectations and dollar strength are key influencers.

Mid-term Outlook for Precious Metals:

Economic soft landing in the U.S., supported by expansionary fiscal policy and geopolitical risks, may sustain higher interest rates through 2023, keeping inflation pressures intact. This could delay a meaningful decline in gold prices, with potential upside in 2024 if the Fed eases policy amid weakened economic data.
2023 is likely to see low volatility in gold, consolidating for a potential reversal; long-term positions could be considered in the range of 1830-1930 dollars/ounce. Domestically, gold is backed by a rising trend in China, despite potential人民币depreciation risks from geopolitical and debt factors.

Major Macro Events and Data:

Upcoming events include the U.S. August CPI data, the European Central Bank's meeting, and China's monthly economic data releases.
Key developments: Senator Schumer's planned visit to China and talks on trans-Pacific relations could impact trade dynamics. OPEC maintains its oil demand forecast, while China's policies support cross-strait economic integration.

This analysis is based on market fundamentals and highlights uncertainties such as Fed policies and global economic conditions.

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