20150630-DBS_Group-China_Property_Weekly_Digest_18页_641kb

China Property Weekly Digest Summary (Issue No. 131)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese property market performance from June 22 to June 28, 2015, focusing on sales, new launches, and inventory levels in Tier I, II, and III cities. It also includes share price performance and peer valuations for key property developers.

Key Market Performance

Weekly Sales Performance (Jun 22 – Jun 28, 2015)

• Total GFA Sold: Increased by 16.8% week-over-week (w-o-w), with a 4.8% year-to-date (YTD) increase compared to 2014 and a -8.3% decrease compared to 2013.
• ASP (Average Selling Price): Rose by 4.5% w-o-w, with a -7.2% YTD decline compared to 2014 and a -6.1% YTD decline compared to 2013.
• Inventory Level: Remained stable at 69 weeks, which is lower than the 2014 average of 77 weeks.

New Projects Launched

• Total Units Launched: 14.8k units were launched in Major Tier I and II cities.
• Sell-through Rate: Increased w-o-w to 76%, up from 63% the previous week.
• Cities with High Launches: 63 projects were launched in Tier I and II cities, with 11 projects launched in Wuhan.

Tier I Cities Analysis

Weekly GFA Sales

• Average Weekly GFA Sold: 327 thousand square meters (sm), up 24% w-o-w.
• Cities Performance:
  • Beijing: 250 sm, -8% w-o-w, 89% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Shanghai: 583 sm, 52% w-o-w, 51% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Shenzhen: 183 sm, 24% w-o-w, 169% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Guangzhou: 292 sm, 15% w-o-w, 74% YTD increase vs 2014.

Weekly ASP

• Average ASP: 25,824 RMB/sm, up 10% w-o-w.
• Cities Performance:
  • Beijing: 28,792 RMB/sm, 19% w-o-w increase, 2% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Shanghai: 26,508 RMB/sm, 11% w-o-w increase, 42% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Shenzhen: 31,491 RMB/sm, 1% w-o-w increase, 32% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Guangzhou: 16,504 RMB/sm, 8% w-o-w increase, -1% YTD increase vs 2014.

Tier II Cities Analysis

Weekly GFA Sales

• Average Weekly GFA Sold: 213 thousand sm, up 10% w-o-w.
• Cities Performance:
  • Tianjin: 316 sm, -6% w-o-w, 125% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Hangzhou: 232 sm, 91% w-o-w increase, 208% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Suzhou: 389 sm, 109% w-o-w increase, 72% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Wuhan: 496 sm, 3% w-o-w increase, 18% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Chengdu: 215 sm, 12% w-o-w increase, 91% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Chongqing: 466 sm, 7% w-o-w increase, -14% YTD decrease vs 2014.
  • Qingdao: 319 sm, 12% w-o-w increase, 215% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Nanjing: 329 sm, 111% w-o-w increase, 162% YTD increase vs 2014.

Weekly ASP

• Average ASP: 10,682 RMB/sm, up 4% w-o-w.
• Cities Performance:
  • Tianjin: 12,005 RMB/sm, 5% w-o-w increase, 4% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Chongqing: 6,113 RMB/sm, 0% w-o-w increase, -22% YTD decrease vs 2014.
  • Xi’an: 7,752 RMB/sm, 0% w-o-w increase, 1% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Shenyang: 6,608 RMB/sm, 5% w-o-w increase, -10% YTD decrease vs 2014.
  • Sanya: 20,933 RMB/sm, 11% w-o-w increase, -5% YTD decrease vs 2014.

Tier III Cities Analysis

Weekly GFA Sales

• Average Weekly GFA Sold: 80 thousand sm, up 18% w-o-w.
• Cities Performance:
  • Dongguan: 273 sm, 29% w-o-w increase, 125% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Weifang: 90 sm, 11% w-o-w increase, n.a. YTD data.
  • Baotou: 67 sm, 42% w-o-w increase, n.a. YTD data.
  • Xuzhou: 220 sm, -12% w-o-w decrease, -1% YTD decrease vs 2014.
  • Bengbu: 34 sm, 9% w-o-w increase, -39% YTD decrease vs 2014.
  • Yangzhou: 43 sm, -13% w-o-w decrease, 135% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Huizhou: 85 sm, 4% w-o-w increase, 25% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Lianyungang: 92 sm, 35% w-o-w increase, 48% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Shantou: 55 sm, 49% w-o-w increase, 191% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Zhongshan: 185 sm, 26% w-o-w increase, 15% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Jiujiang: 60 sm, 16% w-o-w increase, 153% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Zhaoqing: 71 sm, 21% w-o-w increase, 299% YTD increase vs 2014.

Weekly ASP

• Average ASP: 6,005 RMB/sm, up 3% w-o-w.
• Cities Performance:
  • Dongguan: 11,077 RMB/sm, 14% w-o-w increase, 32% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Weifang: 4,219 RMB/sm, 0% w-o-w increase, n.a. YTD data.
  • Baotou: 5,534 RMB/sm, 8% w-o-w increase, n.a. YTD data.
  • Shantou: 8,193 RMB/sm, 6% w-o-w increase, 5% YTD increase vs 2014.
  • Jiujiang: 4,369 RMB/sm, -23% w-o-w decrease, -18% YTD decrease vs 2014.
  • Zhaoqing: 5,052 RMB/sm, 8% w-o-w increase, -24% YTD decrease vs 2014.

Inventory Level

• Inventory (No. of Weeks): Stabilized at 69 weeks, down from 77 weeks in 2014.
• Trend: The inventory level remained largely flat compared to May, with a slight increase of 0.1 weeks in the last week.

Share Price Performance and Peer Valuations

Key Metrics

• HSI: 26,250
• Share Price Performance (YTD): Varies across companies with some showing significant increases and others showing declines.
• Peer Valuations:

  • Large Cap:

    • China Overseas: HK$27.35, Mkt Cap HK$269.7bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 105.9, PE 15F x 8.8, PE 16F x 7.
    • Country Garden: HK$3.41, Mkt Cap HK$77.0bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 36.0, PE 15F x 6.0, PE 16F x 5.8.
    • CR Land: HK$25.15, Mkt Cap HK$174.3bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 83.6, PE 15F x 14.2, PE 16F x 12.8.
    • Evergrande: HK$4.63, Mkt Cap HK$72.4bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 128.8, PE 15F x 7.4, PE 16F x 8.0.
    • Shimao Property: HK$15.3, Mkt Cap HK$53.1bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 32.7, PE 15F x 5.7, PE 16F x 5.2.
    • China Vanke: HK$19.08, Mkt Cap HK$210.6bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 35.3, PE 15F x 11, PE 16F x 10.1.
    • Sino-Ocean Land: HK$5.86, Mkt Cap HK$44.1bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 13.0, PE 15F x 10.0, PE 16F x 7.8.
    • Yuexiu Property: HK$1.69, Mkt Cap HK$21.0bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 15.2, PE 15F x 9.2, PE 16F x 7.8.
    • Average (Large Cap): PE 15F x 10.7, PE 16F x 11.3.

  • Mid Cap:

    • Agile Property: HK$5.22, Mkt Cap HK$20.4bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 15.3, PE 15F x 29, PE 16F x 19.
    • COGO: HK$3.93, Mkt Cap HK$9.0bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 3.8, PE 15F x 29, PE 16F x 28.
    • Poly (Hong Kong): HK$3.75, Mkt Cap HK$13.7bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 17.3, PE 15F x 32, PE 16F x 20.
    • Average (Mid Cap): PE 15F x 17, PE 16F x 8.2.

  • Small Cap:

    • BJ Cap Land: HK$5.96, Mkt Cap HK$12.1bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 4.9, PE 15F x 36, PE 16F x 12.
    • BJ North Star: HK$3.75, Mkt Cap HK$12.6bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 5.6, PE 15F x 12, PE 16F x 10.
    • C C Land: HK$1.89, Mkt Cap HK$4.9bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 1.7, PE 15F x (39), PE 16F x (4).
    • Central China: HK$2.20, Mkt Cap HK$5.4bn, 3-mth daily trading US$m 0.8, PE 15F x 6, PE 16F x 28.
    • Average (Small Cap): PE 15F x 17, PE 16F x 8.2.

Summary of Key Trends

• Sales Growth: There was a 20.2% increase in YTD GFA sales compared to 2014, with a 20.2% increase in the first 26 weeks of the year.
• ASP Trends: ASPs rose in Tier I and II cities, but declined in Tier III cities.
• Inventory: Inventory levels remained stable at 69 weeks, indicating a balanced market.
• Market Volatility: Share price performance varied, with some companies showing strong growth and others experiencing declines or holding positions.

Conclusion

The Chinese property market showed a notable sales pick-up in the last week of June, particularly in Tier I and II cities. ASPs increased, suggesting stronger demand, while inventory levels remained stable. Peer valuations varied, with large and mid-cap companies showing different trends in terms of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and market capitalization. Overall, the market appears to be in a phase of moderate growth with some volatility in stock prices.