2003年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Uzbekistan___Country_Economic_Memorandum_68页_4mb

Uzbekistan Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, evaluates the economic situation and reform strategies of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the context of its transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one. It outlines the government's objectives, current outcomes, and the challenges faced during the reform process. The report emphasizes the need for structural reforms to address economic inefficiencies and promote sustainable growth.

Main Objectives and Outcomes

Government Objectives

• Building a socially-oriented market economy
• Reducing imports through import substitution
• Diversifying the economy from raw materials to modern industrial structure
• Increasing export potential and foreign exchange reserves
• Expanding employment and raising living standards

Development Outcomes

Achieving Economic Independence

• Uzbekistan managed to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 1995 and wheat self-sufficiency by 1998.
• Annual real GDP growth averaged 4% between 1996 and 2001, with per capita growth at 2.4%.
• GDP per capita in 2001 was $2,440 (PPP), the third lowest in the CIS.
• Despite growth, GDP in US dollar terms was significantly lower than in 1996.

Diversifying and Industrializing the Economy

• Industrial growth was low and not broad-based, averaging 1.7% between 1996 and 2001.
• The share of industry in GDP declined from 25% in 1991-92 to 14% in 2001.
• Growth in industry was mainly driven by gold, copper, and food processing.
• New industries in consumer goods and intermediate inputs were promoted, but many operated at low capacity.

Expanding Employment and Raising Living Standards

• Formal employment in industry and agriculture declined, with most growth in the budgetary sector.
• SMEs contributed 15% of GDP, 5% of exports, and 9% of total employment.
• Individual entrepreneurs and subsistence farmers accounted for 19% of GDP and 41% of total employment.
• Incomes and living standards improved little since the early 1990s.
• Rural poverty remains significant, with 27.5% of the population living below the poverty line.

Strengthening Export Potential and Exchange Rate Stability

• Exports have contracted since 1997, with little diversification from raw materials.
• Exports of gold and cotton accounted for over half of total exports.
• Merchandise exports declined by 32% since 1997.
• International reserves are at a comfortable level, but macroeconomic imbalances persist.
• The official exchange rate has been devalued 125 times since 1994, and inflation remains high at around 45%.

Key Issues and Trade-Offs

Price and Production Controls

• The government maintained an overvalued exchange rate, low interest rates, and low prices for energy, raw materials, and agricultural products.
• These implicit subsidies amounted to over half of GDP in 2001, significantly impacting market efficiency and investment.

Resource Allocation

• Resources were centrally allocated, limiting private sector participation and discouraging investment.
• Government expenditure through the state budget and extrabudgetary funds is around 37% of GDP, highlighting continued central control.

Exchange Rate and Capital Flows

• Exchange rate misalignment led to capital outflows and increased external debt service costs.
• The real official exchange rate devalued by 75% since early 2000, affecting external debt and export competitiveness.

Business Environment

• The business environment was constrained by extensive controls, including non-tariff barriers and limited access to foreign exchange.
• These factors reduced foreign direct investment (FDI), which has declined since 1997.

Priority Reform Agenda

1. Liberalize Prices and Markets

   • Lift price controls except for natural monopolies and key foodstuffs.
   • Reduce planning and enforcement of material balances and phase out cash and mandatory crop plans.

2. Strengthen the Foreign Exchange Regime

   • Unify the exchange rate by liberalizing access to foreign exchange for current account transactions.
   • Allow demand and supply to determine the rate, with limited Central Bank intervention.
   • Raise interest rates to positive real levels.

3. Remove Trade Barriers

   • Eliminate non-tariff barriers such as import contract registration, price verification, and export bans.
   • Replace export prepayment requirements with time limits for repatriation of export earnings.
   • Refund VAT on all exports to avoid an effective export tax.

4. Improve Institutional Reforms

   • Discontinue public guarantees and directed credit to enterprises.
   • Restructure state-owned enterprises and banks.
   • Strengthen corporate governance and reduce government control over enterprises.

5. Enhance Social Protection

   • Increase funding for targeted social assistance programs.
   • Phase out social privileges linked to professional occupation.

6. Increase Transparency

   • Publish economic data in accordance with GDDS standards.
   • End secret legislation and clauses in government resolutions.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The government has made progress in economic independence and self-sufficiency but has not met key objectives such as economic diversification and growth in the industrial sector.
• Structural reforms are necessary to address rigidities and distortions that hinder private investment and market efficiency.
• A phased, medium-term reform program is recommended, focusing on liberalizing prices, markets, and trade, along with improving transparency and social protection.
• The report highlights that a more gradual reform pace may not be effective due to the risk of not achieving a positive supply response.
• The proposed reforms are expected to create a more competitive and socially oriented market economy, supported by the international development community.

Key Sector Reform Strategies

• Agricultural Reform: Phase out planning and controls, allow market signals to guide production.
• Enterprise and Private Sector Development: Remove barriers, promote private investment, and improve corporate governance.
• Banking Reform: Discontinue directed credit, strengthen independence and governance of state banks.
• Energy Sector Reform: Remove subsidies, enforce financial discipline, and introduce disconnection policies for non-paying consumers.
• Data and Transparency: Implement GDDS standards, improve public information dissemination, and end secret legislation.

Fiscal and External Risks

• The government has adopted a more conservative fiscal stance, but much of the guaranteed debt could fall on the budget.
• External debt service costs have increased due to the devaluation of the official exchange rate.
• The report calls for a comprehensive reform program that includes current account convertibility and addresses structural constraints.

Political and Social Considerations

• Reforms will face political resistance due to the change in the status quo.
• However, the potential benefits for the population, especially farmers and entrepreneurs, are significant.
• A reform-oriented image will enhance Uzbekistan's attractiveness to foreign investors.

Appendix

• The report includes a reform program matrix that outlines the possible content and phasing of the medium-term reform strategy.
• It illustrates the sequencing of reforms in key sectors such as agriculture, enterprises, banking, and energy.

Summary

The Uzbekistan Country Economic Memorandum highlights the challenges of transitioning from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy. It recommends a comprehensive and phased reform program to liberalize prices, markets, and trade, while improving transparency and social protection. The report underscores the importance of structural reforms in fostering sustainable economic growth and reducing poverty.