毕马威-2018香港银行业展望（英文）-2017.12-20页

2018 Hong Kong Banking Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Hong Kong Banking Outlook outlines key developments, trends, and challenges for the banking sector in the city, emphasizing the role of technology, regulatory changes, and global economic dynamics in shaping the industry's future.

Main Trends and Opportunities

• Positive Market Outlook:

  • The market environment is stabilizing, offering opportunities for increased profitability.
  • US interest rate hikes are expected to benefit Hong Kong by pulling liquidity into the city, leading to better yields and revenue for banks.
  • Credit losses are anticipated to remain stable due to China's controlled financial deleveraging.

• Fintech Goes Mainstream:

  • 2018 is seen as a pivotal year for fintech adoption in Hong Kong.
  • Banks are increasingly prioritizing fintech and regtech to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and enhance customer experience.
  • Collaboration between financial institutions and fintech firms is expected to grow, with initiatives like the HKMA's fintech sandbox and open banking framework supporting this trend.

• Technology-Driven Innovation:

  • Banks are moving from experimentation to implementation of new technologies.
  • Emphasis is placed on applying technology to solve real business problems such as compliance, risk transformation, and client onboarding.
  • The adoption of robotic process automation (RPA), artificial intelligence (AI), and blockchain is anticipated to transform operations and customer service.

• Regulatory and Compliance Focus:

  • Regulatory landscape is becoming more certain, with a focus on promoting innovation while ensuring financial system stability.
  • AML and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) remain key regulatory priorities, with new technologies being leveraged to improve transaction monitoring and customer due diligence (CDD).
  • The HKMA is expected to introduce amendments to the AMLO, including changes to beneficial ownership thresholds and wire transfer regulations, aligning with international standards.

• Global and Regional Economic Impact:

  • Hong Kong is expected to play a central role in facilitating China's global influence, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Greater Bay Area.
  • The city will continue to be a key hub for fundraising, including IPOs, bond issues, and green financing.
  • There is potential for a green investment bank to be established in Hong Kong, reflecting a growing focus on sustainable development and environmental responsibility.

• Organizational and Cultural Transformation:

  • Conduct risk and bank culture are emerging as key areas of focus, with the HKMA emphasizing governance, incentives, and assessment mechanisms.
  • Banks are encouraged to develop a comprehensive conduct framework and align it with their strategic objectives.
  • The shift towards a digital business model is prompting banks to rethink their organizational structure, leadership, and workforce skills.

Key Challenges

• Cybersecurity and Operational Risks:

  • Cybercrime is a growing concern, and banks need to manage these risks effectively.
  • The use of robotics and AI requires careful consideration of data security and governance.

• Regulatory Uncertainty:

  • Although the regulatory environment is stabilizing, the potential rollback of US regulations and the uncertainty around Basel 3 could create a regulatory vacuum.
  • Banks must remain vigilant about regulatory changes and their impact on operations.

• Competition from Non-Traditional Players:

  • Tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba are challenging traditional banking in areas such as B2B commerce and trade finance.
  • Banks need to innovate and collaborate with fintech firms to remain competitive.

Strategic Recommendations

• Business-Led Technology Adoption:

  • Technology initiatives should be driven by business needs, not just by the availability of new tools.
  • Banks should identify specific problems and apply technology to solve them effectively.

• Enhanced Data Management:

  • Data is a critical component of all technological advancements.
  • Banks need to ensure they have robust data governance and management practices in place.

• Organizational Change and Talent Development:

  • Banks should prepare for changes in roles and responsibilities as automation and AI become more prevalent.
  • Developing people and talent programs to support a hybrid workforce is essential.

• Proactive Risk Management:

  • Banks should adopt a risk-based approach to AML and conduct risk management.
  • The HKMA's National Risk Assessment (NRA) should be used to improve internal risk assessments and control measures.

• Collaboration and Innovation:

  • Collaboration between banks, regulators, and fintech firms is crucial for innovation and growth.
  • Banks should explore new technologies and participate in industry consortia to test and implement innovative solutions.

Conclusion

2018 is poised to be a transformative year for Hong Kong's banking sector, driven by technological adoption, regulatory clarity, and a focus on sustainable and ethical practices. Banks that embrace these changes strategically and proactively will be better positioned to thrive in the evolving financial landscape.