20230412-东吴证券国际经纪-海外电池企业年报点评_23年动力市场增长预判仍较乐观_7页_735kb

Power Equipment Industry Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the power battery industry in 2023, focusing on overseas battery manufacturers and their performance, growth prospects, and investment recommendations. It highlights the optimistic outlook for the power battery market despite challenges in the current year, emphasizing the importance of cost control, capacity expansion, and the impact of energy storage demand on profitability.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Market Growth Outlook

• The 2023 power battery market is expected to grow significantly, driven by strong demand in the automotive sector, especially in North America.
• Global demand for power batteries is projected to increase by 39% in 2023, with energy storage batteries expected to grow by 44%.
• The U.S. market is anticipated to grow at a higher rate (60%) compared to other regions, which is a key growth driver.

2. Company Performance Highlights

LG Energy Solution

• 2022 Revenue: RMB141.4bn (+43% YoY), driven by increased shipments and higher unit prices.
• Q4 Revenue: RMB47.2bn (+92% YoY / +12% QoQ), a record high for the quarter despite lower-than-expected sales volume.
• Operating Margin: Annual margin of 4.7% (+0.4pct YoY), Q4 margin of 2.8% (impact of higher incentive fees).
• Capacity Expansion: 200GWh at the end of 2022, with 40GWh capacity in North America by end of 2023. Total capacity expected to reach 540GWh by end of 2025.

Samsung SDI

• 2022 Revenue: RMB28.7bn (+78% YoY / +10% QoQ), with a significant QoQ increase in operating profit.
• Q4 Operating Profit: RMB1.93bn (+26% YoY / +199% QoQ), but margin dropped to 6.7% (-3pct QoQ).
• Capacity Expansion: 50GWh in 2023, with plans to expand to 11GWh in South Korea, 15GWh in China, and 40GWh in Europe.
• New Production Lines: 26.7 billion cylindrical battery units in 2023. Plans to expand with General Motors and Volvo in the U.S.

SK Innovation (SKI)

• 2022 Revenue: Over RMB40bn (+150% YoY), with Q4 revenue at RMB15.9bn (+170% YoY / +31% QoQ).
• Q4 Operating Profit: RMB-1.4bn, with a positive outlook for EBITDA and operating profit in 2023 and 2024.
• Capacity Expansion: 200GWh by 2029. 40.2 billion square meters of diaphragm capacity by 2025.

Panasonic

• 2022 Revenue: RMB47.9bn (+34% YoY), but operating profit dropped to RMB2.16bn (-41% YoY).
• Q4 Revenue: RMB13bn (+27% YoY / +2% QoQ), with operating profit at RMB0.01bn (-99% YoY / -98% QoY).
• Capacity Expansion: 50GWh in 2023, 30GWh cylindrical battery capacity in the U.S. to be completed by 2025. 10GWh 4680 battery production to begin in 2024.
• Global Capacity: Expected to reach 229GWh by 2025.

3. Investment Recommendations

• First Recommendation: Companies with rising battery earnings supported by energy storage demand: CATL, Eve Energy, BYD, Pylontech. Also recommend Xinwangda, Blue Sky Lithium.
• Second Recommendation: Companies with stable earnings: Diaphragm (Enjia, Xingyuan), Structural Components (Kedali), Precursors (Zhongwei, Huayou), Negative Materials (Putelei, Shanshan), Aluminum Foil (Dingsheng).
• Third Recommendation: Companies with declining earnings but low valuations: Electrolyte (Tianci, Xinzhongbao), Iron Lithium (Defang), Additives (Tianna), Ternary (Rongbai, Dangsheng, Zhenhua), Bauxite (Yizhishun), Copper Foil (Jiayuan, Nuode).
• Fourth Recommendation: Companies with high prices but low valuations: Lithium (Tianqi, Ganfeng).

4. Market Share Analysis (2022)

• CATL: 191.6GWh (37.0%), up 4.3pct from 2021.
• LG Energy Solution: 70.4GWh (13.58%), down 6.5pct from 2021.
• BYD: 70.4GWh (13.6%), up 4.8pct from 2021.
• Panasonic: 38.0GWh (7.3%), down 4.8pct from 2021.
• Samsung SDI: 24.3GWh (4.69%), up 0.1pct from 2021.
• SK Innovation: 27.8GWh (5.37%), down 0.2pct from 2021.
• Other Companies: 66.2GWh (12.8%), up 1.4pct from 2021.

5. Risks

• Lower-than-expected sales
• Higher-than-expected price competition
• Decline in investment growth

Conclusion

The report suggests a positive outlook for the power battery industry in 2023, with continued capacity expansion, especially in North America, and increased demand from energy storage. While some companies like SKI and Panasonic faced challenges in profitability, the overall market is expected to rebound, making the electric vehicle sector an attractive investment opportunity. The report emphasizes the importance of evaluating companies based on their growth potential, stability, and valuation levels.