2017葡萄酒行业报告（英文版）_72页_3mb

State of the Wine Industry 2017 Summary

Core Content

The State of the Wine Industry 2017 report by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) provides a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. wine market, highlighting both the opportunities and risks in a rapidly evolving industry. The report uses the metaphor of Jaws to illustrate the dangers and unpredictability of market conditions, emphasizing the need for vigilance and adaptability.

Main Predictions and Observations

2017 Summary Forecast

• Premium Wine Sales Growth: Expected to range from 10 to 14 percent, up from 9 to 13 percent in 2016.
• Overall Industry Growth: Dollar sales are projected to increase by 4 to 6 percent, while volumes will rise by 2 to 3 percent.
• Market Trends: The report notes that the U.S. wine market is shifting toward premiumization, with lower-priced segments continuing to decline.
• Regulatory Environment: Federal, state, and local regulations will continue to be a major topic in trade press, especially in the Central Valley, where restrictions on tasting room visits are impacting small wineries.

Pricing Trends

• Under $9 Wines: Will continue to struggle due to weak demand and competition.
• $12 to $25 Wines: Expected to see growth in demand and limited price increases.
• $35 to $75 Wines: Price increases will be difficult without improved economic performance.
• High-End Luxury Wines: Will maintain volume and take small price increases due to established brand recognition.

Supply Trends

• California Harvest: Predicted to be 3.95 million tons crushed in 2017, a 7 percent increase from 2016.
• Quality and Yield: Overall quality was excellent, with average or slightly above average yields in most regions.
• Land and M&A: Arable land for premium wine production is becoming scarcer, driving up vineyard prices in premium regions. Oregon and Washington will continue to attract interest from larger wine companies.
• Non-Core Varietals: Some non-core varietals and lower-priced wines will face excess supply.

Key Market Dynamics

Premiumization

• Consumer Behavior: Premium wines are driving most of the growth in the U.S. wine trade.
• Millennials: Are beginning to influence the lower price range of premium sales, but will trend toward varietal wines and imports as their incomes rise.
• Gen X and Millennials: Will surpass baby boomers in the fine wine market by 2021 and 2026, respectively.
• Brand vs. Varietal: Younger consumers are increasingly trusting brand over varietal, which has implications for producers who rely on varietal labeling for brand identity.

Restaurant Wine Sales

• Decline: Restaurant wine sales have been declining for a decade, with the trend accelerating in recent years.
• Performance: Only the red varietals and blends above $25 show positive growth, while lower-priced categories continue to see reduced volumes and sales.
• Distribution Access: Large producers dominate restaurant wine sales due to better access to distribution channels, while small wineries are increasingly excluded.
• Consumer Preferences: Frugal millennials and retirees on fixed incomes are shifting toward cheaper alternatives like beer and cocktails, further impacting restaurant wine sales.

What Was Predicted and What Actually Happened

What We Got Wrong

• Per Capita Consumption: Expected to decline due to millennial influence, but it actually slightly increased due to better marketing efforts in the lower price segment.

What We Got Close

• Import Growth: Anticipated due to a strong U.S. dollar and foreign supply, but the exact figures were slightly off.

What We Got Right

• Premium Wine Growth: The forecast of 10 to 14 percent growth for the premium segment was accurate.
• Harvest Trends: The prediction of a 3.95 million ton harvest in California was close to the actual figure of 3.7 million tons.
• M&A Activity: Expected to remain active despite rising interest rates.

Conclusion

The U.S. wine industry is undergoing significant transformation, with premiumization as a central theme. While the market shows promise, challenges such as regulatory restrictions, shifting consumer preferences, and the dominance of large producers in distribution channels persist. The report underscores the importance of understanding these dynamics and adapting to them to avoid being "fish bait" in a competitive and volatile market.