20140523-巴黎银行证券-Brazil__2014_election_tracker_15页_636kb

Brazil: 2014 Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the 2014 Brazilian presidential election, including key dates, candidate profiles, approval ratings, rejection rates, and potential market impacts. It highlights the dynamics of the electoral process, the political and academic backgrounds of the main candidates, and the implications of their approval and rejection rates on their chances of winning the election.

Election Calendar

• June 2014:

  • June 10th–30th: Parties decide on candidate associations and select their nominees.
  • July 5th: Deadline for parties to present their candidates to the electoral court.

• July 2014:

  • July 6th: Candidates begin their campaign activities (radio, TV, internet, and street).

• August 2014:

  • August 19th: Publicly financed TV and radio campaigns start.

• October 2014:

  • October 5th: First round of the presidential, gubernatorial, and legislative elections.
  • October 11th: Publicly financed TV and radio campaigns for the second round begin.
  • October 24th: Last day of all campaign activities.
  • October 26th: Second round of the presidential election.

Main Candidates

• Dilma Rousseff (PT):

  • Background: Former president, previously served as Chief of Staff and Minister of Mines and Energy.
  • Political Affiliation: Worker's Party (PT), a centre-left party.
  • Membership: 1,400,000 members (as of 2010).
  • Political Career: Has held various positions in both state and federal governments.

• Aécio Neves (PSDB):

  • Background: Former governor of Minas Gerais, federal senator, and president of the Lower House.
  • Political Affiliation: Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), a centre-right party.
  • Political Career: Extensive experience in both legislative and executive branches.

• Eduardo Campos (PSB):

  • Background: Former governor of Pernambuco, served as state and federal congressman, and minister of Science and Technology.
  • Political Affiliation: Brazilian Social Party (PSB), a centre-left party with a social democracy ideology.
  • Political Career: Strong local political roots and experience in public administration.

Approval and Election Chances

• Based on a survey by Instituto Analise, the following approval thresholds were identified for election chances:
  • Less than 34% approval: 0% chance of election (red sector).
  • 34%–45% approval: 40% chance of election (yellow sector).
  • 46% or more approval: 100% chance of election (green sector).

Rejection Rates

• Rejection rate is defined as the percentage of survey respondents who would not vote for a candidate under any circumstances.
• This metric is crucial in assessing the viability of candidates and their potential to win.

TV Campaigning

• First Round: TV campaigning runs from 19 August to 2 October.
• Second Round: Publicly financed TV and radio campaigns begin on 11 October and end on 24 October.

Investor Opinion on Asset Prices

• A survey by Brasil Plural with 73 institutional investors (as of 14 May 2014) was conducted to estimate how asset prices would perform in 2014 depending on the election outcome.
• The results are visualized in charts for Ibovespa and USDBRL, indicating potential market reactions to each candidate's victory.

Key Information

• The election involved three main candidates: Dilma Rousseff (PT), Aécio Neves (PSDB), and Eduardo Campos (PSB).
• The document emphasizes the importance of approval ratings in predicting election outcomes.
• The timeline of the election process is well-documented, including key campaign milestones and dates.
• Market expectations and potential impacts are also considered, particularly from the perspective of investors.