2006年-世界发展银行全球_Labor_Market_Developments_During_Economic_Transition_44页_467kb

Summary of Labor Market Developments During Economic Transition in Europe and Central Asia

Core Content

This paper analyzes labor market developments during the economic transition in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), focusing on the following key aspects:

• Key Labor Market Problems: The scarcity of productive job opportunities and labor market segmentation are identified as the two main labor market problems in ECA.
• Unemployment Patterns: In European transition economies (ETE), unemployment is persistent due to overstaffing and low productivity. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), unemployment is less visible, but underemployment and low-productivity employment are widespread.
• Employment Adjustments: The transition led to significant job losses, with varying patterns across sub-regions. Some countries experienced net job creation after the mid-1990s, while others saw delayed restructuring.
• Labor Force Participation and Unemployment Dynamics: The fall in labor demand caused a shift from employment to unemployment and labor force inactivity. The response varied by country, with some countries seeing a greater rise in unemployment and others a more significant drop in labor force participation.
• Gender Disparities: Male employment rates are disproportionately lower than female rates in ECA, reflecting a shift in labor demand towards non-manual, higher-skilled jobs. This trend is more pronounced in CEE than in the EU.
• Changing Nature of Employment: The transition led to a decline in secure, full-time wage employment and an increase in casual, low-productivity, and informal jobs. The informal sector became a major source of employment, especially in CIS countries.
• Informal Sector Characteristics: The informal sector is more prevalent and has different functions in ETE and CIS countries. In ETE, it is often an alternative to formal employment, while in CIS, it serves as a last resort for those without formal job opportunities.

Main Views

• Productivity and Job Quality: The paper highlights that job losses in ETE are associated with persistent unemployment, while in CIS, job losses are often hidden through underemployment and low productivity.
• Segmentation and Inequality: Labor market segmentation is a result of increasing earnings differentials, regional polarization, and the growth of the informal sector. This is more pronounced in CIS than in ETE.
• Employment-to-Population Ratios: Despite significant job losses, employment-to-population ratios in most transition economies remain within the OECD range, indicating that the labor market is still relatively active.
• Informal Sector Growth: The informal sector has grown significantly, especially in CIS countries, and is often a reflection of weak formal job creation and economic restructuring delays.
• Dynamic Adjustment Process: Labor market adjustment during the transition has been a dynamic process, with workers moving between unemployment and economic inactivity based on labor market conditions.

Key Information

• Employment Reductions: In ETE, employment is 20-30% lower than before the transition. In CIS, the reduction is less significant, with some countries even seeing employment growth.
• Unemployment and Inactivity: Unemployment increased in response to job losses, while some workers became economically inactive due to discouragement or lack of interest in employment.
• Employment Ratios: The employment ratio in CEE is about 64%, similar to the EU and OECD. In CIS, it is higher, reflecting delayed restructuring and the persistence of non-viable jobs.
• Informal Sector Share: In CEE, the informal sector accounts for 15-25% of employment, while in CIS it can reach up to 50%.
• Gender Differences: Female labor force participation and employment rates in CEE are similar to EU levels, while male employment rates are significantly lower, indicating underutilization of male labor resources.
• Informal Sector Functions: In ETE, the informal sector is often a complement or alternative to formal employment. In CIS, it serves as a primary source of income for those without formal jobs.
• Employment Patterns Across ECA: Different patterns of labor force adjustment emerged across ECA countries, influenced by institutional differences and the pace of restructuring.

Key Stylized Facts

• The employment-to-population ratio fell significantly in most transition economies.
• Unemployment rates increased, especially in CEE, while labor force participation rates decreased in some CIS countries.
• The informal sector is a major employer in CIS countries, often providing low-productivity and casual jobs.
• Male employment rates are lower than female rates in ECA, indicating a shift in labor demand.
• Labor market segmentation is more pronounced in CIS than in ETE.
• The transition process has been associated with a regression toward the mean in employment rates, with some countries nearing equilibrium levels.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that the labor market in ECA has undergone significant transformation during the economic transition. The persistence of unemployment and underemployment, along with the growth of the informal sector, reflects the challenges of restructuring and the uneven development across sub-regions. The dynamics of labor force participation and unemployment have varied, with institutional differences playing a key role. The gender gap in employment rates highlights the uneven impact of transition on different segments of the labor force. Overall, the labor market in ECA is still evolving, and the transition has not yet led to a return to pre-transition employment levels.