2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Kosovo_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_58页_1mb

Summary of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for the Republic of Kosovo

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Republic of Kosovo on January 15, 2016. This review enabled the disbursement of SDR 28.1 million (about €35.6 million), bringing total disbursements under the SBA to SDR 56.2 million (about €71.2 million). The SBA, approved on July 29, 2015, is a 22-month arrangement with access of SDR 147.5 million (about €184 million), aimed at preserving Kosovo's low debt, enhancing financial stability, and supporting growth through fiscal and structural reforms.

Main Views

Economic Recovery and Performance

• Growth Recovery: After a slowdown in 2014, economic growth is recovering, with the 2015 growth projection revised upward to 3.5 percent.
• Inflation: Inflation remains low, with a monthly decline of 0.4 percent in September 2015, and core inflation at 0.5 percent. The recent VAT increase is expected to boost prices in the remainder of the year, but deflation is still anticipated for the year as a whole.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit is expected to increase to 8.9 percent of GDP in 2016 before gradually decreasing in the medium term, driven by improved exports and remittances.

Program Performance

• The program is on track, with all performance criteria and indicative targets met by comfortable margins.
• Fiscal balance and government bank balance exceeded expectations by 2 percent and 1.5 percent of GDP, respectively.
• Tax revenues increased by 7.9 percent in the year to September 2015, with the VAT increase expected to add 0.2 percent of GDP.
• Current spending is expected to be 0.3 percent of GDP lower than at the time of program approval and 1 percent lower than the May 2015 Article IV report.

Structural Reforms

• Public Wage Bill Rule: A new rule was introduced to cap public sector wage increases at nominal GDP growth, with a 0.5 percent flexibility in case of a recession. This is expected to reduce the wage bill/GDP ratio to around 9 percent in 2017, aligning with comparator countries.
• Centralized Procurement: Tender bids for centralized procurement of oil, air tickets, and office supplies were issued, with contracts expected to be finalized ahead of schedule.
• Privatization and Donor Projects: The government submitted candidates for the Privatization Agency of Kosovo (PAK) board, and the transfer of €5 million in tax revenues and €30 million in privatization funds is expected to be completed.

Financial Sector Improvements

• Emergency Liquidity Assistance: A new regulation was adopted in September 2015, aligning with international best practices.
• Risk-Based Supervision: An on-site examination of a bank under new supervision guidelines was completed, helping authorities identify risks and vulnerabilities.
• Banking Sector Health: The sector remains well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, with a capital adequacy ratio of 18.5 percent and liquid assets equivalent to 37 percent of short-term liabilities.

Key Information

• IMF Disbursements: The first review allowed for the disbursement of SDR 28.1 million, bringing total disbursements to SDR 56.2 million.
• Fiscal Targets: The 2016 fiscal deficit is expected to remain at €98 million (1.6 percent of GDP), excluding PAK and donor-financed projects.
• Structural Benchmarks: All structural benchmarks for the first review were completed, including amendments to the fiscal rule's investment clause, the adoption of the public wage bill rule, and the implementation of emergency liquidity assistance and risk-based supervision.
• Risks: Ongoing political gridlock may delay key legislation and affect investor confidence. Additionally, Kosovo remains vulnerable to electricity supply disruptions and potential European low-growth environments.

Additional Notes

• The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and the withholding of policy intentions in published documents.
• The documents include a Press Release, Staff Report, Statement by the Executive Director, and attachments such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.

Conclusion

The SBA program is progressing well, with Kosovo showing signs of economic recovery and structural improvements. Continued fiscal discipline, political stability, and implementation of reforms are critical to maintaining macroeconomic stability and achieving long-term growth. The main challenges include political delays and external risks such as European economic conditions and energy supply issues.