20170313-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2017.03.13_18页_885kb

Cotton and Wool Outlook Summary (CWS-17c, March 13, 2017)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. and global cotton and wool markets for the 2016/17 season, including supply, demand, trade, and price trends.

U.S. Net Textile and Apparel Imports

• 2016 Imports: U.S. net textile and apparel fiber imports were stable, reaching 15.8 billion raw-fiber-equivalent pounds, close to the 2015 record.
• Product Breakdown:
  • Synthetic products accounted for 50% of total net imports.
  • Cotton products made up 43%.
  • Linen, wool, and silk contributed 7%.
• Comparison with 2011:
  • In 2011, cotton made up 50% of net imports, while synthetics accounted for 44%.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Cotton Supply and Demand

• 2016/17 Crop:
  • U.S. cotton production increased to 17.2 million bales (upland: 16.7 million bales; extra-long staple: 565,000 bales).
  • This represents a 27% increase over the previous season and the largest crop since 2012/13.
• Supply Estimate:
  • Total supply for 2016/17 reached 21 million bales, 27% more than the previous season.
• Demand Estimate:
  • Total U.S. cotton demand is estimated at 16.5 million bales, similar to the 2012/13 level.
  • Mill use: 3.3 million bales.
  • Exports: Projected to rebound to 13.2 million bales, a 45% increase from the previous year.
• Ending Stocks:
  • Estimated at 4.5 million bales, 18% above the 2015/16 level.
  • Stocks-to-use ratio: 27%, a slight decrease from the previous year.
• Prices:
  • Average price received by U.S. upland cotton producers is expected to rise to 67–70 cents per pound, up from 61.2 cents per pound in 2015/16.
  • Midpoint of 68.5 cents per pound would be the highest in 3 years.

Retail Cotton Consumption

• 2016 Consumption:
  • Domestic cotton consumption (mill use + net textile imports) dropped slightly to 8.5 billion raw-fiber-equivalent pounds.
  • This is the second highest in 6 years but still 20% below the 2006 record.
• Import and Export Trends:
  • Cotton product imports decreased by 3% to 8.6 billion pounds.
  • Cotton product exports fell by 7% to 1.7 billion pounds.
  • The decline is attributed to the growing share of polyester in the market.

International Outlook

Global Cotton Production

• 2016/17 Forecast:
  • Global production is expected at 105.7 million bales, 9% above 2015/16.
  • This increase is primarily due to the U.S. and Australia.
• Harvested Area:
  • Estimated at 29.2 million hectares (72.2 million acres), 4% below the previous year.
• Yield:
  • Forecast at 788 kg per hectare (703 pounds per acre), a 14% increase from 2015/16.

Global Cotton Trade

• 2016/17 Forecast:
  • Global cotton trade is projected at 36.0 million bales, a 2% increase from 2015/16.
  • The highest in three seasons.
• Major Importers:
  • Bangladesh: 6.4 million bales.
  • Vietnam: 5.4 million bales.
  • China: 4.5 million bales.
• Major Exporters:
  • U.S. and Australia are expected to increase their exports.
  • India's exports are forecast to decrease by over a million bales.

Global Cotton Consumption and Stocks

• 2016/17 Consumption:
  • Forecast at 112.4 million bales, 1% above 2015/16.
• Stocks:
  • Projected to decline by 7% to 90.5 million bales, the lowest in 5 years.
  • China's stocks are expected to drop by over 9 million bales, while India, Brazil, and the U.S. will see some gains.
• Prices:
  • World cotton prices are expected to rebound to the low 70-cent range, up from the previous two years.

Key Market Trends

• Synthetic dominance: Synthetics now make up the largest share of U.S. net imports, surpassing cotton in the last 3 years.
• U.S. exports:
  • Expected to reach a 6-year high.
  • Weekly exports have been strong, with a record week of over 500,000 bales.
• Global demand:
  • Increased supply and higher foreign import demand are supporting global trade.
  • India's increased production and higher yields are expected to offset some of the decline in its exports.

Contacts and Resources

• Contact: Leslie Meyer (Imeyer@ers.usda.gov) and Carolyn Liggon (cvliggon@ers.usda.gov).
• Subscription: Available via ERS e-mail notification service.
• Data and Charts:
  • Cotton and Wool Monthly Tables.
  • Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery.
• Related Websites:
  • USDA Cotton Price Statistics.
  • Cotlook Ltd. Cotton Outlook.

Summary of Key Figures

Conclusion

The U.S. and global cotton markets in 2016/17 showed signs of recovery, with increased production and export volumes. However, synthetic fibers continue to dominate the market, leading to a decline in cotton's share of net imports. The U.S. is expected to see a rise in its global trade share due to improved exports and a higher supply of high-quality cotton. Global stocks are projected to fall, potentially leading to a rebound in cotton prices.