Adobe-2018年美国假日季购物销售预测报告（英文）-2018.11-40页-11mb

Retail Unwrapped 2018 Holiday Predictions Summary

Core Content

This report outlines key trends and predictions for the 2018 U.S. holiday retail season, based on data from Adobe Experience Cloud, Analytics Cloud, and Advertising Cloud. It provides insights into consumer behavior, online shopping growth, mobile usage, and the impact of new technologies like voice assistants and social media on retail performance.

Key Findings

Online Holiday Shopping Growth

• Online holiday shopping revenue is projected to reach $124.1 billion in 2018, a 14.8% increase from 2017.
• 66.7% of retail spending will occur online, with faster growth on holidays concentrating sales.
• Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday will generate $23.4 billion, or 19% of online holiday shopping.
• Cyber Monday is expected to be the highest revenue day with $7.8 billion and 17.6% YoY growth.

Consumer Behavior Trends

• 44% of consumers prefer to shop on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
• 1 in 7 holiday spending is on self-gifts.
• 1 in 3 consumers plan to spend more on experiences than physical items.
• 10% of gifts are returned, with 18% more returns during the holiday season.
• 60% more consumers plan to shop on their smartphones on Thanksgiving compared to 2016.
• 1 in 5 consumers shop online during a wedding, showing that they are not embarrassed about where they shop.

Mobile and App Usage

• Smartphones will account for 48% of online visits and 27% of purchases.
• Mobile app users are 2X more likely to convert than website users.
• 3X more mobile app shoppers have made recent purchases compared to traditional web users.
• Smartphone checkout is 20% less likely to complete than desktop checkout, suggesting a need for improved mobile experiences.

Device Trends

• Tablets are losing market share, with a 30% decrease in visits over the last four years.
• Laptops have shrunk in size, while smartphones have grown, shifting the device landscape.

Retail Strategies

• BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In Store) is growing rapidly, with 119% increase since January.
• Large retailers benefit from larger baskets, with 30% more spending per order.
• Recurring customers contribute 40% of revenue for large, pure-play retailers, compared to 28% for brick-and-click.
• Shopping on Thanksgiving is shifting from in-store to online, with 14% more consumers skipping in-person shopping.

Voice Assistants and Social Media

• Voice assistants are used for product research, list creation, and price comparison, though few place orders directly.
• Social media is gaining volume but losing value, with a 11% decrease in visit value over two years.
• Direct visits have seen 30% growth in value.

Product Trends

• Top 1% of products drive 54% of online sales during the holiday season, with a 30% lift.
• 4K TVs are now the standard, with 83% of TVs sold in 2017 being 4K.
• Toys remain a top category, with 2x more surprise toys sold in 2017 compared to 2016.
• PlayStation Classic is expected to be a top product, following Nintendo Switch success.

Economic Impact

• $120 billion in online shopping could fly 500,000 people into space.
• 105 million calories of eggnog were consumed, equivalent to half a million cups.

Conclusion

The 2018 holiday season is expected to see significant growth in online retail, driven by mobile usage, BOPIS, and consumer preference for experiences. Retailers must adapt to mobile-first strategies, optimize for peak shopping hours, and leverage the growing popularity of smart speakers and 4K TVs. The shift in consumer behavior, including increased reliance on social media and voice assistants, requires a more holistic approach to marketing and customer engagement.