哈佛大学-中国的借贷战略和对美国外交政策影响-2018.07-64页_7mb

Debtbook Diplomacy: China's Strategic Leverage and U.S. Implications

Core Content

Debtbook diplomacy refers to China's use of accumulated debt to achieve strategic geopolitical and economic objectives. This strategy is part of a broader geoeconomic toolkit that China has been employing to enhance its influence, secure trade routes, and challenge the U.S.-led international order. The report identifies 16 countries that are at risk of being targeted through this strategy, grouped into three categories: Debtbook West (String of Pearls), Debtbook South (South China Sea Influence), and Debtbook East (Second Island Chain and Beyond).

China's approach typically follows a three-phase cycle:

1. Investment – Providing long-term, low-interest loans and infrastructure financing through institutions like the China Development Bank and EXIM Bank.
2. Construction and Operation – Delivering projects with poor quality and low returns, often leading to financial strain on the host country.
3. Debt Collection – Offering debt forgiveness in exchange for strategic concessions or influence, potentially resulting in asset transfers or political alignment.

The report highlights Sri Lanka as a case study, where China secured a 99-year lease on the Hambantota Port through a debt-for-equity swap. This example illustrates how debtbook diplomacy can lead to strategic asset control and loss of sovereignty for debtor nations.

Main Strategic Goals of China

1. String of Pearls: To establish a network of ports and military facilities in South Asia and the Indian Ocean to project power and secure trade routes.
2. Undermine U.S. Regional Coalitions: To fracture alliances and challenge U.S. influence in the South China Sea (SCS) by gaining diplomatic support.
3. Extend Naval Reach: To penetrate the Second Island Chain and expand its blue-water naval presence in the Pacific.

U.S. Interests at Risk

The report outlines several key U.S. strategic interests that could be undermined by China's debtbook diplomacy:

• Maintaining Strategic Balance: China's growing presence in key regions threatens the U.S. naval monopoly over critical trade routes like the Strait of Malacca.
• Preserving Leverage with Key Partners: China's loans may weaken the U.S.'s ability to influence countries like Pakistan and the Pacific Island Countries (PICs).
• Securing Trade and Energy Routes: China's "Malacca Dilemma" strategy seeks to diversify energy imports and challenge U.S. control over maritime trade.
• Strengthening U.S.-India Relations: India is increasingly aligned with the U.S. in countering Chinese expansion, especially in the Indian Ocean.
• Promoting International Rule of Law: China's disregard for international legal rulings in the SCS undermines the legitimacy of the rules-based order.
• Countering Human Rights Violations: China's condition-free financing offers an alternative to countries under international sanctions, reducing U.S. influence.

Key Countries and Their Vulnerability

Key Recommendations

To counter the effects of debtbook diplomacy, the report proposes three sets of U.S. government recommendations:

1. Targeting and Streamlining Investment

   • Consolidate the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and USAID's Development Credit Authority (DCA) into a single entity.
   • Recruit allies into joint investment ventures.
   • Focus limited resources on digital infrastructure and areas of comparative advantage.

2. Strengthening Alliances

   • Bolster India's role as a regional leader.
   • Revitalize the Quad (U.S.-India-Japan-Australia) as a rules-based coalition.
   • Enhance economic and maritime security cooperation among Quad members.

3. Managing Debt Burdens

   • Use tariff relief and support for the AIIB as bargaining chips.
   • Engage in initiatives like the Paris Club and G20's Sustainable Financing Agenda to encourage responsible lending.
   • Provide debt assistance and best practices through multilateral institutions like the World Bank.

Conclusion

Debtbook diplomacy is a strategic tool used by China to expand its influence, secure infrastructure, and challenge the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S. must respond by strengthening alliances, streamlining investment, and managing debt risks to prevent the erosion of its strategic advantages. The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to prioritize its vital interests, coordinate resources, and address the long-term implications of this emerging geoeconomic strategy.