20170102-三星证券-Samsung_Model_Portfolio__Better_earnings_to_underpin_stock_market_gains_17页_885kb

Samsung Model Portfolio Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the performance of the Samsung Model Portfolio in comparison to the Kospi index, along with the January 2017 outlook and key changes to the portfolio composition. It highlights the impact of global macroeconomic factors on the stock market and outlines the investment strategy for the upcoming month.

Main Points

• Performance Review (December 2016):

  • The Samsung Model Portfolio gained 2.60% in December, outperforming the Kospi by 43 basis points (bps).
  • The portfolio beta increased from 1.04 in December to 1.10 in January.
  • Developed Markets (DMs) outperformed Emerging Markets (EMs) in December, with cyclicals leading the market rallies.
  • The US FOMC meeting results aligned with market expectations, and the European Central Bank's extension of quantitative easing boosted the markets.

• January Outlook:

  • The global fund flows remained favorable to stock markets, especially DMs, since the US presidential election.
  • Market volatility was relatively low compared to periods since 2009, due to positive global policy outlooks and improved corporate earnings forecasts.
  • The consensus forward EPS forecast for the MSCI Korea rose 1.5% in the past month.
  • Despite the optimism, three risk factors are identified: the direction of the new US administration's policies, a resumption of Brexit risk, and further yuan weakening.
  • These risks are expected to cause mild corrections rather than damage fundamentals.
  • The January target range for the Kospi is 1,980-2,100.

• Portfolio Changes:

  • The portfolio remains market neutral in terms of sector mix, but makes significant changes to the stock mix.
  • Increased exposure to the consumer discretionary and industrials sectors from 16% and 13% to 18% and 14%, respectively.
  • Decreased exposure to the consumer staples and materials sectors from 7% and 11% to 5% and 10%, respectively.
  • New additions include Pan Ocean, Coway, and Ecopro, while Wonik IPS, KCC, Lotte Himart, and Samryoong are removed.

Key Information

Portfolio Weightings by Sector (January 2017)

• Consumer discretionary: 18%
• Consumer staples: 5%
• Energy: 3%
• Financials: 14%
• Health care: 0%
• Industrials: 14%
• IT: 30%
• IT hardware and semiconductors: 28%
• Software and services: 2%
• Materials: 10%
• Telecom services: 2%
• Utilities: 4%
• Total: 100%

Active Risk (January 2017)

• Pan Ocean: +2% (vs Kospi: -1.2% over 1 month, +0.1% over 3 months, +12.9% over 12 months)
• Coway: +2% (vs Kospi: -3.9% over 1 month, -7.0% over 3 months, -1.3% over 12 months)
• Ecopro: +2% (vs Kospi: +11.5% over 1 month, -17.7% over 3 months, -12.6% over 12 months)

Companies Added

• Pan Ocean
• Coway
• Ecopro

Companies Removed

• Wonik IPS
• KCC
• Lotte Himart
• Samryoong

Companies with Increased Exposure

• Samsung Electronics: +1%
• SK Hynix: +2%
• POSCO: +1%
• Hyundai Mobis: +1%
• Korea Investment Holdings: +1%
• Mando: +1%

Companies with Reduced Exposure

• Samsung Fire & Marine: -1%
• S1: -1%
• Naver: -2%

Summary Table

Conclusion

The Samsung Model Portfolio is expected to benefit from improved corporate earnings and favorable global fund flows. The portfolio remains market neutral but shifts its exposure towards consumer discretionary and industrials, while reducing consumer staples and materials. The document outlines the strategic changes in the portfolio and the anticipated performance based on the current macroeconomic environment and sector-specific analysis.