世界发展银行-Jobs,-Recovery,-and-Peacebuilding-in-Urban-South-Sudan_70页_2mb

Summary of "Jobs, Recovery, and Peacebuilding in Urban South Sudan"

Core Content

This report by Jan von der Goltz and Bernard Harborne examines the challenges and opportunities for job creation and economic recovery in urban areas of South Sudan, emphasizing the role of urban centers in supporting broader peacebuilding and recovery efforts. It outlines key findings from four technical studies on urban job activities, macroeconomic conditions, agricultural markets, and the role of businesses and NGOs. The report also provides policy and operational recommendations to address the current economic and social challenges.

Main Findings

• Urban Economy and Livelihoods: Urban areas, though home to only 26% of South Sudan's population, play a crucial role in economic recovery due to more secure access and their importance in connecting with rural markets. Most urban jobs are low-productivity self-employed or household activities in agriculture and services.
• Poverty and Employment: Over 75% of urban residents live in poverty, with typical incomes around $2 per day. Only 25% of jobs are paid, and these are more common in the public and NGO sectors. Women and youth face additional challenges in accessing paid employment.
• Impact of Conflict and Pandemic: Years of conflict, natural disasters, and economic crisis have severely impacted livelihoods, with over a third of the population still displaced and more than half experiencing acute food insecurity. The pandemic and locust outbreak have added new challenges, further straining the economy.
• Macroeconomic Challenges: The macroeconomic environment is weak, with high inflation (40% in April 2020), a significant decline in non-oil output, and a lack of transparency in oil revenue management. Public investment is limited, and the budget is heavily skewed toward security spending.
• Agricultural Markets: Agricultural markets have declined but remain a vital source of income. Despite some recovery in 2019, cereal deficits persist, and local value chains are short. Traders and processors rely heavily on their activities for household income, but face challenges such as low supply, danger, and high costs.
• Business and NGO Employment: Only about 6% of the urban labor force is employed by businesses and NGOs, which provide around 25% of jobs in Juba. Security firms and NGOs are the largest employers, while manufacturing is underdeveloped.
• Constraints on Economic Activity: Insecurity, lack of funding, low demand, and poor infrastructure (roads and electricity) are major constraints. Households and businesses rely on limited own and family funds, with few taking loans. Market traders struggle with insufficient demand and high costs at checkpoints.

Key Recommendations

• Security and Infrastructure: Improving local security and road infrastructure is critical for recovery. These investments should be synchronized with peacebuilding efforts to ensure safe movement and reduce extortion.
• Macro-Fiscal Reforms: The government should avoid monetizing deficits, reform the exchange rate, reduce public salary arrears, and lower market and checkpoint fees. These reforms can stimulate local demand and improve economic conditions.
• Aggregate Demand: Addressing public salary arrears can boost local demand. The international community should support local food aid purchases and market guarantees to help aggregators and traders.
• Agricultural Productivity: Enhancing agricultural productivity through input provision and cash grants can support local markets and rural producers. Farmer cooperatives and aggregators should be engaged as key partners.
• Self-Employed Activities: Cash grants and public works can support self-employed workers, especially in the short term. Training programs are less urgent due to the lack of successful examples in post-conflict settings.

Policy and Operational Implications

• Urban-Led Recovery: Urban areas are seen as a starting point for self-sustained recovery due to their potential to stimulate local markets and provide employment opportunities.
• Resource Mobilization: A moderate investment of $500 million over three years could support 250,000 households, helping to reduce poverty and stimulate economic activity. This investment could also open markets for rural producers.
• Peacebuilding Integration: Economic recovery efforts must be integrated with peacebuilding initiatives. The report highlights the importance of aligning job creation with the peace process to ensure long-term stability and reconciliation.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for a balanced approach that supports immediate job creation and economic activity while laying the groundwork for long-term recovery and peacebuilding. It emphasizes the importance of urban centers in driving economic recovery and highlights the role of policy reforms, infrastructure development, and support for local markets in achieving this goal.