美国能源署-短期能源展望（英文）-2018.05-46页

报告摘要

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Summary - May 2018

Core Content

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for May 2018, providing forecasts for energy markets, including crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products, as well as electricity, coal, and emissions.

Forecast Highlights

Global Liquid Fuels

Brent crude oil averaged $72 per barrel in April 2018, the first time since November 2014 that monthly prices exceeded $70/b.
EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $71/b in 2018 and $66/b in 2019, both $7/b and $3/b higher than the April STEO.
WTI crude oil prices are expected to be $5/b lower than Brent in both 2018 and 2019.
Market expectation for August 2018 WTI prices is $54–$84/b, with a 95% confidence level.

U.S. Gasoline Prices

EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.90/gal during the April–September 2018 summer driving season, 17 cents/gal higher than the April STEO.
2018 average is $2.79/gal, and 2019 average is $2.86/gal.
Monthly peak in June is forecast at $2.97/gal, with a decline to $2.86/gal in September.
Gasoline stocks in April were 7 million barrels above the five-year average.

U.S. Crude Oil Production

April 2018 production averaged 10.5 million b/d, up 120,000 b/d from March.
EIA forecasts 2018 average at 10.7 million b/d, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017.
2019 average is expected to be 11.9 million b/d, 0.4 million b/d higher than the April STEO.
EIA projects U.S. crude oil production to exceed 12 million b/d by the end of 2019.

Net Imports and Inventories

Net crude oil and petroleum product imports are forecast to fall from 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to 2.6 million b/d in 2018 and 1.5 million b/d in 2019, the lowest since 1958.
Global petroleum inventories declined by 0.5 million b/d in 2017, but are expected to grow by 0.2 million b/d in 2018 and 0.6 million b/d in 2019.

Natural Gas

Production and Exports

U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017, and is forecast to reach 80.5 Bcf/d in 2018 (a new record) and 83.3 Bcf/d in 2019.
Net natural gas exports are expected to increase from 0.4 Bcf/d in 2017 to 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018 and 4.6 Bcf/d in 2019.

Prices and Inventories

Henry Hub natural gas spot prices averaged $3.01/MMBtu in 2018 and $3.11/MMBtu in 2019.
April 2018 Henry Hub prices settled at $2.73/MMBtu, up 4 cents/MMBtu from April 2.
Natural gas inventories in April 2018 increased by 22 Bcf, ending the month 27% below the five-year average.
Distillate exports reached a weekly record of 1.7 million b/d in early April 2018, with an average of 1.4 million b/d for the month.

Ethane Price Spread

Ethane spot prices widened relative to natural gas futures prices, with a spread of $1.04/MMBtu in April 2018.
This differential encourages processors to extract more ethane for consumption and export.
Ethane production is expected to rise to 1.7 million b/d in 2018 and 1.9 million b/d in 2019.

Electricity, Coal, Renewables, and Emissions

Electricity Generation

Natural gas is forecast to provide 34% of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation in 2018 and 2019, up from 32% in 2017.
Coal is expected to account for 29% in both 2018 and 2019, down from 30% in 2017.
Nuclear is forecast at 20% in 2018 and 19% in 2019.
Nonhydropower renewables are expected to provide over 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019.
Hydropower is forecast to fall slightly below 7% in both 2018 and 2019.

Coal Production and Consumption

Coal production is expected to decline by 3% in 2018 to 751 MMst, and remain nearly unchanged in 2019 at 752 MMst.
Domestic coal consumption is forecast to drop by 4% in 2018, primarily in the electric power sector.
Coal exports are expected to fall by 9% in 2018.

Emissions and Weather Impact

Energy-related CO2 emissions are forecast to increase by 1.4% in 2018 and 0.4% in 2019, sensitive to weather, economic growth, and energy prices.
April 2018 was the coldest April in 21 years, contributing to withdrawals from natural gas storage.

Notable Forecast Changes

Brent crude oil prices for 2018 and 2019 are $7/b and $3/b higher, respectively, than the April STEO.
U.S. crude oil production in 2019 is 0.4 million b/d higher than the April STEO.
U.S. gasoline prices are forecast to be 17 cents/gal higher in 2018 than in the April STEO.
Natural gas prices are expected to remain relatively flat due to increased production.

Key Information

Backwardation (higher near-term prices than longer-dated prices) increased in April, indicating strong demand for immediate oil deliveries.
Money manager positions show increased net long positions in both Brent and WTI futures, contributing to bullish sentiment in crude oil markets.
Gasoline crack spreads are lower than usual, affecting global gasoline prices.
Natural gas inventories are expected to increase during the injection season to over 3.5 trillion cubic feet by October 31, though below the five-year average.

Conclusion

The STEO highlights rising crude oil prices, increased U.S. production, and moderate natural gas price trends due to supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and transportation constraints. The outlook also indicates a shift in electricity generation towards natural gas, while coal production and consumption decline. Renewables are expected to gain a smaller share, and CO2 emissions are projected to increase slightly. The report emphasizes the impact of weather, market sentiment, and infrastructure limitations on energy price forecasts.