年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Seychelles_Climate_Change_Policy_Assessment_60页_1mb

Summary of Seychelles Climate Change Policy Assessment

Core Content

This report is a Climate Change Policy Assessment (CCPA) for Seychelles, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank staff in collaboration with the Seychelles government. It evaluates the country's climate change strategies, particularly its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and its broader preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation efforts, from a macroeconomic perspective.

Seychelles has placed climate change at the center of its sustainable development strategy, more effectively than most other small states. The country's NDC submission to the Paris Agreement outlines a balanced approach to both mitigation and adaptation, with costed investment plans. The report suggests reforms to enhance the likelihood of success of these plans, focusing on macroeconomic implications and financial sustainability.

Main Recommendations

General Preparedness

• Maintain the NDC up-to-date with the Paris process.
• Finalize the National Economic Development Plan and sectoral plans, emphasizing costing and resource mobilization.
• Reduce vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change by:
  • Strengthening land use planning and sector development.
  • Reviewing and enforcing building codes.
  • Developing a Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Strategy.
  • Creating sector-specific and area-specific contingency plans.
  • Enhancing the hydro-meteorological network and early warning systems.
  • Implementing coastal protection and urban resilience measures for Victoria.
  • Increasing public awareness and education.
  • Improving technological capacity for climate change research and monitoring.

Mitigation

• Introduce a carbon tax gradually, aiming for 360 rupees per ton by 2020 and 1,260 rupees per ton by 2030, covering both power generation and road fuels.
• Raise electricity tariffs to reflect marginal costs.
• Transition vehicle taxation to an ad valorem rate plus a 'feebate' system.
• Consider price incentives to reduce waste (e.g., 'pay-per-bag' trash schemes and deposit refunds for hazardous waste).
• Explore congestion fees or tolls to manage traffic sustainability.

Adaptation

• Clarify the details of adaptation proposals in the NDC.
• Use completed sectoral strategies (e.g., SNAIP, Blue Economy Roadmap) to identify additional adaptation needs.
• Develop clearer investment plans to identify financing gaps, especially in frontline areas such as water, health, and tourism.
• Update the Seychelles Strategic Land Use Plan to address sea-level rise and storm surges.

Financing

• Develop a comprehensive view of financing needs, including contingency financing.
• Rely on private and concessional financing to execute the NDC, ensuring fiscal and debt sustainability.
• Prioritize the clean energy strategy, as it can strengthen the balance of payments.
• Offset revenue losses from fuel and vehicle taxation by introducing a carbon tax.
• Plan investment execution to avoid inflation or overheating, given the near-full employment rate.
• Economize on the costs of accessing climate finance as experience grows.
• Ensure innovative financing packages offer value for money.

Risk Management

• Develop costing of tail events and use this to guide contingency budgeting.
• Re-establish the Contingency Fund by saving unused contingency appropriations in years without disasters.
• Consider making insurance mandatory for buildings in flood-risk areas.
• Explore the cost-effectiveness of insurance as a supplementary buffer for key government buildings.

National Processes

• Ensure climate change objectives are systematically identified in the budget and investment projects are explicitly linked.
• Review and update relevant legislation, such as the Energy Act, for consistency with sectoral strategies.
• Pass the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Act.
• Strengthen public investment appraisal and monitoring capacities in the Ministry of Finance and other ministries.
• Amend the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act to ensure all loans and grants go through the Ministry of Finance, Trade, and Economic Planning (MFTEP), and develop a policy for managing donor funding.

Key Information

• Climate Change Risks and Impacts: Seychelles is vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on tourism and fisheries. Risks include rising temperatures, extreme rainfall, droughts, sea-level rise, and landslides.
• Economic Impacts: A disaster causing 10% of GDP in damage is manageable, but one causing 30% could lead to unsustainable debt levels.
• NDC Overview: Seychelles' NDC includes a commitment to emissions reduction, adaptation plans, and costed projects. It is considered a model for other small states.
• Financing Needs: The cost of climate-related projects identified in the NDC is 40% of 2016 GDP. Current climate-related spending in the PSIP is around 3.5% of GDP.
• Priority Needs: Public financing or external support is needed for infrastructure, renewable energy, and adaptation projects. Private investment is more feasible for mitigation than adaptation.
• Capacity Building: Strengthening public investment and financial management skills is crucial for implementing climate strategies effectively.

Tables and Boxes

Table 1: Seychelles—Recent and Expected Climatic Developments

• Temperatures: Average warming of 0.25°C (1972–1997). Increase in very warm days and nights.
• Precipitation and Flooding: Annual rainfall anomaly trends upward (13.7 mm/year). Heavy rainfall events have caused significant economic losses.
• Droughts: Severe droughts in 2010, followed by heavy flooding. Expected more extreme dry and hot episodes.
• Sea Level Rise: Already causing coastal erosion and salinization. Expected to impact infrastructure, tourism, and water supply.
• Landslides: Intense rainfall events trigger landslides, increasing damage to transport and housing.

Box 1: Priority Needs to Be Met

• Government Financing or External Support:
  • Completion of the disaster-preparedness strategy.
  • Quasi-public goods for renewable energy (e.g., strengthening the electricity grid, charging stations).
  • Critical infrastructure (US$70 million++).
  • Tourism and coastal management (US$45 million++).
  • Blue economy (US$15 million++).
  • Water security (US$85 million++).
  • Food security (US$35 million++).
  • Health (US$30 million++).
  • Biodiversity (US$15 million++).
  • Land use to address sea-level rise and storm surges (not yet costed).
• Private Investment:
  • Solar PV for public electricity and EVs (US$222 million).
  • Electric vehicles (US$67 million).
  • Waste management (US$21 million).
• Capacity Building:
  • Completion of the disaster-preparedness strategy.
  • Integration of climate activities into costed sectoral plans.
  • Carbon taxation and vehicle taxation reforms.
  • Waste management and public investment management skills.

Conclusion

Seychelles has a strong foundation for climate change preparedness and has integrated climate considerations into its development strategy. However, to ensure long-term sustainability and resilience, the country needs to strengthen its institutional capacity, improve its financing mechanisms, and implement more comprehensive and costed adaptation strategies. The report emphasizes the importance of public-private partnerships, innovative financing, and consistent policy frameworks in achieving these goals.