2018世界贸易统计回顾（英文版）-9mb

Summary of the WTO Statistical Review 2018

Core Content

The World Trade Statistical Review 2018 provides a comprehensive overview of global trade trends and developments from 2017 to 2018. It highlights key areas including merchandise trade, commercial services, regional trade agreements, digital trade, global value chains, and WTO membership. The report also discusses trade policy developments and the methodologies used for data collection and analysis.

Main Highlights of World Trade in 2017

• Merchandise Trade:

  • Grew by 4.7% in volume terms, the strongest growth in six years.
  • Increased by 11% in value terms.
  • Asia recorded the highest trade volume growth at 8.1%.
  • Developing economies accounted for 43% of world merchandise exports in 2017, with their exports growing by 12%.
  • China, the United States, and Germany were the top three merchandise traders.
  • Over 70% of merchandise exports were manufactured goods, with 44% of these being chemical products, office and telecommunications products, and automotive products.
  • LDCs contributed less than 1% of world services exports in 2017, but their merchandise exports grew by 13%.

• Trade in Commercial Services:

  • Fully recovered in 2017, with 8% growth in value.
  • Africa's travel exports grew by 25%, driven by record tourism revenue.
  • World transport exports increased by 9%, and IP-related services grew by 10%.
  • The United States, United Kingdom, and Germany were the top commercial services exporters, while the United States, China, and Germany were the top importers.
  • China, India, and Singapore were the leading commercial services traders among developing economies.

• Regional and Economic Groups:

  • The EU and NAFTA accounted for 48% of global manufactured goods exports.
  • South-South trade reached 21.4% of world merchandise exports in 2016, with 50.5% of developing economies' total exports going to other developing economies.
  • Developing economies contributed 30.6% of world services exports and 38.1% of services imports.
  • WTO members accounted for 98% of world merchandise trade in 2017, up from 88% in 1995.

• Digital Trade:

  • Global e-commerce reached $27.7 trillion in 2016, up from $19.3 trillion in 2012.
  • B2B e-commerce is 6 times larger than B2C e-commerce.
  • Initiatives are ongoing to improve the measurement of digital trade, with a Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade expected in late 2018.

• Global Value Chains (GVCs):

  • 40% of the value added in world automotive exports in 2011 came from services.
  • Services contributed 68% of the value added in the automotive sector, while manufacturing contributed 32%.

• WTO Membership:

  • WTO members represented 98% of world merchandise trade in 2017.
  • LDCs had a 0.6% share in global commercial services exports in 2017.

Key Trends 2017-2018

• Trade Growth Resilience:

  • Despite trade tensions in early 2018, trade growth in 2017 was strongest since 2011.
  • The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth returned to its historical average of 1.5, up from 1.0 in the post-2008 crisis period.

• Economic Drivers:

  • Trade volume growth in 2017 was driven by cyclical factors, including increased GDP growth (up to 3.0% in 2017 from 2.3% in 2016).
  • Investment spending in the US and rising consumption in Japan were key contributors.
  • China and the EU maintained steady expansion, supporting global demand.

• Trade Tensions:

  • Trade tensions in early 2018 led to trade-restrictive measures in major economies, which could disrupt global trade and growth.
  • The report emphasizes the importance of reliable data in monitoring trade policies and trends.

Methodology and Data Sources

• The report uses WTO-UNCTAD-ITC estimates for most data.
• Statistical sources are detailed in Chapter VIII.
• Abbreviations and symbols are listed in the report for clarity.
• Provisional data for 2018 are included, with minor discrepancies due to rounding.

Conclusion

The WTO Statistical Review 2018 underscores the resilience of global trade in 2017, driven by stronger economic activity and recovery from previous slowdowns. It highlights the growing role of developing economies in global trade, the importance of services, and the need for improved data measurement in emerging areas like digital trade. The report also calls attention to the ongoing trade tensions and their potential impact on the global trading system, emphasizing the WTO's role in monitoring and supporting trade policy development.