世界银行-财政政策对伊拉克不平等和贫困的影响（英）-2023.10-55页_1010kb

报告摘要

Introduction and Context

Iraq's economy relies heavily on oil revenues, with tax mobilization limited primarily due to high oil dependence and weak domestic revenue collection. The study assesses the fiscal system's impact on poverty and inequality using 2017 fiscal year data from the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology.
Poverty and inequality trends in Iraq are influenced by factors like oil price volatility, political instability, and regional disparities. Poverty declined but inequalities persist, exacerbated by conflicts and crises.

Methodology

The analysis uses CEQ methodology to evaluate distributional impacts of taxes, transfers, and public expenditures on income distribution. Key data sources include the SWIFT household survey and administrative government data.
In-kind transfers (health and education) are separated from cash transfers for poverty and inequality calculations. Indirect taxes and subsidies are included where available.

Headline Results

Iraq's fiscal system reduces short-term poverty moderately compared to global standards, particularly using the UMIC poverty line (USD 5.5 PPP), ranking high among 57 countries. For example, it reduces poverty by 6.3% when measured domestically and 5.0% using the international line.
However, fiscal policy modestly reduces inequality by 3.0 to 6.7 Gini points, placing it in the lower half among 62 countries and 26 UMICs.
The study finds that Iraq's fiscal system generates net beneficiaries across all income levels, partly due to low tax collection and high spending on social programs.

Distributional Analysis and Effectiveness

Fees such as simplified electric tariffs and personalized cash transfers target the poor effectively, while fuel and electricity subsidies benefit richer households, worsening inequality.
Direct transfers and primary education show the highest cost-effectiveness in reducing inequality, while indirect subsidies and tertiary education increase inequality. Taxes on alcohol and tobacco have regressive impacts.

Policy Implications

Iraq should prioritize targeted cash transfers and reduce regressive subsidies to enhance equity and efficiency. Reforms in education and health spending are recommended to boost long-term human capital. Labor market reform and diversifying revenue sources can improve fiscal sustainability and economic growth.