2005年-世界发展银行全球_Investment_and_Saving_in_China_20页_310kb

Summary of "Investment and Saving in China"

Core Content

This paper examines the factors driving high investment and saving in China, focusing on sectoral trends and their implications for policy. It highlights that while household saving has been a significant contributor, the majority of China's high saving rate is due to enterprise and government saving. The analysis uses data from the Flow of Funds (FoF) and compares China's patterns with those of other countries to identify unique features.

Main Findings

• High Investment and Saving: China's investment and saving rates are notably high compared to other countries. Total domestic saving is around 42.5% of GDP, while the average for other countries is about 21%.
• Sectoral Contributions:
  • Household Saving: The household saving rate has been around 25% of disposable income since 2000, with a saving ratio of 6.7% of GDP in 2003.
  • Enterprise Saving: Enterprise saving has risen significantly, especially since 2000, and is now comparable to household saving. It is primarily sourced from retained earnings.
  • Government Saving: Government saving is remarkably high, at 7.5% of GDP in 2001, due to a policy favoring government-financed investment over consumption.
• Financing of Enterprise Investment:
  • Enterprise investment is mainly financed by retained earnings (around 50% of investment) and government capital transfers (around 6.2% of GDP in 2001).
  • External financing, including bank loans and FDI, accounts for about 10% of enterprise investment.
  • Net external financing peaked at 14-16% of GDP in the mid-1990s but has declined since then.

Key Trends in Investment and Saving (1990-2003)

• Investment:
  • The investment to GDP ratio peaked at 43.3% in 1993 and declined to 36.3% in 2000.
  • It increased again to 43.8% in 2003 and is expected to be even higher in 2004.
  • Enterprise investment dominates, ranging between 27% and 35% of GDP.
• Saving:
  • The saving-investment balance (current account) is typically in balance, with domestic saving as the main source.
  • The saving rate of households declined from 30% in the mid-1990s to around 25% by 2000.
  • The saving-investment deficit of enterprises was around 14% of GDP in 2001, with most of the financing coming from retained earnings and government transfers.

International Comparison

• Total Domestic Saving: In 2001, China's total domestic saving was 16 percentage points higher than the average of the US, France, Japan, Korea, and Mexico. This gap widened to 20 percentage points by 2003.
• Household Saving: China's household saving rate is higher than most comparator countries, especially France (16%). Despite lower disposable income compared to the US and Mexico, it remains relatively high as a share of GDP.
• Enterprise Saving: Enterprise saving in China is higher than in the US, France, and Mexico, driven by the high share of capital-intensive industry in GDP and low dividend policies.
• Government Saving: Government saving is significantly higher than in other countries, largely due to its role in financing investment through capital transfers to state-owned enterprises.

Policy Implications

1. Banking System Exposure: The banking system's exposure to enterprise investment is less than commonly believed, with retained earnings and government transfers playing a larger role.
2. Corporate Governance: The high reliance on retained earnings and government transfers raises concerns about corporate governance, dividend policy, and transparency.
3. Policy Shift: The planned shift in government spending from investment to social spending and the increased role of private consumption can be supported by reducing the share of government revenue devoted to investment and reforming the policy framework to promote less capital-intensive industries.

Conclusion

China's high investment and saving rates are driven by a combination of factors, including the dominance of the enterprise sector, high government saving, and substantial household saving. The paper emphasizes that while household saving is important, it is not the sole driver. The financing of enterprise investment is largely internal, with external financing playing a smaller role. These findings have important implications for policy, including the need to improve corporate governance and transparency, and to adjust the policy stance to ensure sustainable growth and efficient capital allocation.