20180806-大华银行-FX_Insights_13页_1mb

报告摘要

Global Economics & Markets Research Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the upcoming economic and market events for the week of August 6, 2018, with a focus on the FX market and central bank outlooks. It outlines key economic indicators, central bank meetings, and currency pair movements, along with technical analysis and support/resistance levels for each major currency pair.

Main Points

Economic Calendar Highlights

United States:
- July PPI (Thursday) and CPI (Friday) are the main inflation data releases.
- Expected to remain unchanged at 2.9% and 2.3% respectively.
- Other releases include June JOLTS openings (Tuesday), June consumer credit data (Wednesday), and weekly MBA mortgage applications (Wednesday).
Eurozone:
- German June factory orders are the main event today.
- The economic calendar is otherwise quiet.
United Kingdom:
- Brexit headlines may influence GBP, especially with a holiday-thinned market.
- 2Q GDP is expected to rise to 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y.
Japan:
- Preliminary 2Q GDP is expected to show real growth of 0.3% q/q (or 1.3% saar).
- A summary of the July Monetary Policy Meeting is released on Wednesday.
- The BoJ is unlikely to raise rates, but bond markets are pushing for higher JGB yields.
Australia and New Zealand:
- RBA and RBNZ will make policy decisions on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.
- Neither is expected to change rates.
- Key data for Australia includes the Melbourne Institute's Inflation Gauge (Monday) and June home loans (Wednesday).
Canada:
- July employment data is due on Friday.

Key Currency Pair Analysis

USD/SGD

24-Hour View: Expected to trade sideways within a range of 1.3640/1.3695.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; upward pressure has shifted but a bullish phase is unlikely.
Levels:
- Support: 1.3640, 1.3600
- Resistance: 1.3710, 1.3745
- Range: 1.3686–1.3712
- Percentage Change: -0.14% (1D), +0.38% (1W), +0.05% (1M), +2.20% (YTD)

EUR/USD

24-Hour View: Immediate bias is downward, but a clear break of 1.1525 support is unlikely.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; a retest of the 1.1500/10 support zone is expected.
Levels:
- Support: 1.1525, 1.1505
- Resistance: 1.1640, 1.1680
- Range: 1.1583–1.1611
- Percentage Change: -0.12% (1D), -0.76% (1W), -0.74% (1M), -3.67% (YTD)

GBP/USD

24-Hour View: A dip below 1.2958 is possible but not expected.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; a test of 1.2930 support is likely.
Levels:
- Support: 1.2930, 1.2880
- Resistance: 1.3070, 1.3040
- Range: 1.3645–1.3666
- Percentage Change: -0.10% (1D), -0.82% (1W), -1.71% (1M), -3.68% (YTD)

AUD/USD

24-Hour View: Expected to trade sideways within a range of 0.7350/0.7420.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; likely to remain in a consolidation range.
Levels:
- Support: 0.7350, 0.7310
- Resistance: 0.7420, 0.7485
- Range: 0.7363–0.7412
- Percentage Change: +0.46% (1D), -0.08% (1W), +0.17% (1M), -5.22% (YTD)

NZD/USD

24-Hour View: Expected to trade sideways within a range of 0.6725/0.6775.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; a fresh year-to-date low seems likely.
Levels:
- Support: 0.6725, 0.6670
- Resistance: 0.6775, 0.6810
- Range: 0.6739–0.6766
- Percentage Change: +0.10% (1D), -0.58% (1W), -0.17% (1M), -4.90% (YTD)

USD/JPY

24-Hour View: Soft patch in USD may extend lower, but 110.75 is unlikely to be threatened.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; consolidation is expected.
Levels:
- Support: 111.35, 110.60
- Resistance: 112.05, 112.50
- Range: 111.64–111.81
- Percentage Change: -0.35% (1D), +0.19% (1W), +0.72% (1M), -1.23% (YTD)

EUR/SGD

24-Hour View: Expected to test the next resistance at 1.2325.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; further choppy trading is likely.
Levels:
- Support: 1.2240, 1.2100
- Resistance: 1.2325, 1.2350
- Range: 1.2255–1.2295
- Percentage Change: +0.17% (1D), +0.16% (1W), -0.58% (1M), +3.48% (YTD)

GBP/SGD

24-Hour View: Weakened undertone suggests a test of the next support at 1.7720.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; a dip below 1.2958 is possible but not expected.
Levels:
- Support: 1.7720, 1.7700
- Resistance: 1.7830, 1.7880
- Range: 1.7814–1.7833
- Percentage Change: -0.25% (1D), -0.43% (1W), -1.57% (1M), -1.54% (YTD)

JPY/SGD

24-Hour View: Room for a test of the next resistance at 1.2325.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral; further choppy trading is expected.
Levels:
- Support: 1.2240, 1.2100
- Resistance: 1.2325, 1.2350
- Range: 1.2255–1.2295
- Percentage Change: +0.17% (1D), +0.16% (1W), -0.58% (1M), +3.48% (YTD)

FX & Interest Rate Outlook

Currency Pair	3Q18	4Q18	1Q19	2Q19	FX Outlook	Rates Outlook
EUR/USD	1.20	1.21	1.22	1.23	Neutral	EU: 0.00%
GBP/USD	1.33	1.32	1.31	1.30	Neutral	UK: 0.75%
AUD/USD	0.77	0.78	0.79	0.80	Neutral	AU: 1.50%
NZD/USD	0.71	0.71	0.72	0.73	Neutral	NZ: 1.75%
USD/JPY	110	111	112	113	Neutral	JP: -0.10%
USD/SGD	1.38	1.39	1.40	1.41	Neutral	SG: 1.75%
USD/MYR	4.07	4.08	4.10	4.12	Neutral	MY: 3.25%
USD/THB	33.60	33.80	34.00	34.30	Neutral	TH: 1.50%
USD/CNY	6.85	6.95	7.00	7.10	Neutral	CN: 4.35%
USD/IDR	14,600	14,700	14,800	14,900	Neutral	ID: 5.25%
USD/PHP	53.80	54.20	54.80	55.50	Neutral	PH: 3.75%
USD/INR	69.50	70.00	70.50	70.80	Neutral	IN: 6.50%
USD/TWD	31.00	31.30	31.60	32.00	Neutral	TW: 1.38%
USD/HKD	7.84	7.84	7.84	7.84	Neutral	HK: 2.50%
USD/KRW	1,150	1,160	1,170	1,180	Neutral	KR: 1.50%
USD/SGD*	1.34	1.35	1.35	1.36	Neutral	SG: 2.25%
USD/US*	1.36	1.37	1.38	1.40	Neutral	US: 2.25%

Note: The outlook for Asian currencies suggests potential weakness.

Central Bank Meetings in 2018

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	31	-	21*	-	02	13*	-	01	26*	-	08	19*
European Central Bank (ECB)	25	-	08	26	-	14	26	-	13	25	-	13
Bank of England (BOE)	-	08#	22	-	10#	21	-	02#	14	-	01#	20
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	06	06	03	01	05	03	07	04	02	06	04
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	-	08^	22	-	10^	28	-	09^	27	-	08^	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	23**	-	09	27**	-	15	31**	-	19	31**	-	20**
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	tba	-	-
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	25	-	07	-	10	-	11	-	05	-	08	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	14	28	-	16	20	-	08	19	-	14	19
Bank Indonesia (BI)	18	15	22	19	17	29	19	16	27	23	15	20
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)	-	08	22	-	10	20	-	09	27	-	-	-