2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burundi_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Three_57页_947kb

Burundi: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Extension of the Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the fifth review of Burundi's three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement under the International Monetary Fund (IMF), conducted in early 2011. It includes a staff report, a press release on the Executive Board discussion, and other supporting documents such as the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU), and the Letter of Intent. The review assesses Burundi's economic performance and policy implementation since the start of the ECF-supported program in 2008, and recommends the extension of the arrangement to August 31, 2011.

Main Points

Program Overview

• The ECF arrangement was approved in July 2008 with access to SDR 46.2 million (60% of quota).
• The fourth review was completed in July 2010.
• The fifth review was conducted by an IMF mission from December 1–11, 2010, and concluded in January 2011.
• The staff recommends the completion of the fifth review and extension of the ECF arrangement to August 31, 2011.

Economic Performance

• The economy is recovering from the global crisis, with GDP growth rising to 3.9% in 2010 from 3.5% in 2009.
• Inflation fell to 4.1% in 2010 due to lower nonfood prices.
• The current account deficit is expected to decrease to 12% of GDP in 2010, driven by higher exports and official transfers.
• Gross official reserves remained at about five months of imports in 2010.

Fiscal Policy and Reforms

• The 2011 budget aims for a fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP (cash basis, including non-HIPC grants).
• Fiscal policy will prioritize aid absorption, poverty-reducing spending, and refocusing capital expenditure on infrastructure.
• Revenue reforms are underway, including the establishment of the Burundi Revenue Authority (BRA), computerization of tax collection, and broadening the tax base.
• Domestic revenue is expected to reach 19.3% of GDP in 2011, supporting increased pro-poor spending.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sector

• Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing prices and supporting economic recovery.
• Inflation is projected to rise to 9% in 2011 due to higher international food and oil prices.
• Broad money is expected to grow by 16%, and reserve money by 13%.
• The central bank is enhancing supervision, improving liquidity management, and implementing new foreign exchange regulations.
• Financial sector reforms include modernizing payment systems and improving transparency and governance.

External Sector Policies

• The central bank and treasury are working to improve foreign exchange market flexibility and coordination.
• The authorities are committed to managing public debt prudently, focusing on grants and highly concessional loans.
• A public debt strategy for 2011–30 is being drafted, with annual debt ceilings and sectoral priorities.

Structural Reforms

• Structural reforms are progressing, particularly in public financial management (PFM) and governance.
• A single treasury account is nearing completion, and the BRA is now operational.
• The coffee sector is undergoing reforms, including the privatization of washing stations.
• The government is enhancing transparency and good governance, including the development of an anticorruption strategy and improving administrative procedures.

Program Monitoring and Conditions

• Quantitative performance criteria for 2010 were met, and structural benchmarks were largely fulfilled.
• Continuous performance criteria include zero ceilings on new nonconcessional external debt, short-term external debt, and external payment arrears.
• Structural conditionality is linked to the first strategic axis of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), focusing on economic governance and transparency.

Risks

• The primary risk is a worsening external environment with higher food and oil prices than projected.
• Governance issues, such as delays or lapses in implementing reforms, could affect donor support.
• Mitigation strategies include boosting agricultural production and maintaining prudent fiscal and monetary policies.

Key Information

• IMF Role: The IMF conducted the review in collaboration with Burundi authorities and other departments.
• Donor Support: Donor-financed investment is crucial for economic recovery.
• Political and Security Context: The country remains in a fragile postconflict situation, which could affect governance and donor confidence.
• Reforms and Implementation: Structural reforms are ongoing but face challenges due to limited institutional capacity and political instability.
• Poverty Reduction: The program emphasizes pro-poor spending, with a focus on health, education, and agriculture.

Conclusion

The staff report concludes that Burundi's economic performance has been broadly satisfactory, and the program is on track to achieve its objectives. The extension of the ECF arrangement is recommended to allow for the completion of the sixth review. Continued focus on fiscal discipline, monetary stability, and structural reforms is essential for long-term economic stability and poverty reduction.